Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2019

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 17, 2018.

  1. Michael

    Michael I LOVE WIDE S-T-E-R-E-O!

    we both know the answer to that. ; ) and it ain't no love of a machine gun! being responsible is the key...
     
  2. The R rating automatically put limiters on Rocketman's box office. PG-13 movies don't have those same box office constraints.
     
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  3. Michael

    Michael I LOVE WIDE S-T-E-R-E-O!

    true, but wouldn't this movie be more in the line of adults attending than a younger audience? Adults usually don't mind an R-Rated movie...
     
  4. sunspot42

    sunspot42 Forum Resident

    Location:
    San Francisco
    Was anybody under 13 ever gonna see Rocketman? Seems to me that's totally not the target audience.

    In fact I doubt it was the target audience for Bohemian Rhapsody.
     
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  5. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I think that's true. Run time and ratings do have a factor in what kind of box office a film can really do. But I think the conceptual problems with Rocketman were what limited it, even more than the rating and casting and all that kind of stuff. I think Elton John had a fascinating life, but you'd need a 10-hour film to deal with a 50-year career. Only a handful of rock artists are in that category.
     
  6. NickCarraway

    NickCarraway Forum Resident

    Location:
    Gastonia, NC
    This was precisely the case with Casino Royale in the UK, where literally frames were edited out of the "Daniel Craig tied to a chair" scene to get the blessing of the authorities.
     
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  7. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I don't personally care either way. I saw the movie with an "R" rating, the same way I would have seen it with a PG-13 rating.

    When the Motion Picture Association of America film rating system was introduced back in 1968, there were a lot of independent films that were being released.

    I felt that the code system would be liberating to film makers to freely make a movie that was culturally relative and artistically creative, but not necessarily for family audiences, as most films tended to be.

    One thing that I found curious, is that an "R" rating only meant that a film was not intended for children under that age of seventeen, nothing more than that and I found it surprising that an "R" rating would have an effect on adult audiences at the box office also.

    But, somehow that was a "stigma" associated with an "R" movie, that caused many "adults" to avoid an "R" rated movie.

    I could never quite get a grip on this, since an "R" rating is clearly not the same as a NC-17 rated movie, only a movie with adult related themes.
     
  8. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident


    But, for some odd reason, they do. See above post.
     
  9. Michael

    Michael I LOVE WIDE S-T-E-R-E-O!

    well that makes no sense....
     
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  10. I suspect it'll do well on the physical media back-end though, given that it's in large part a "feel" movie that lends itself to rewatchability and seems to be appealing to those who won't settle for streaming when it comes to films they particularly like.
     
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  11. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Especially if a much longer directors cut is included, that will be a significant lure if available only on 4K/Blu/DVD.
     
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  12. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    We've seen this story before quite a few times.

     
  13. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I agree, but if you look at the reasoning behind the studio's wanting PG-13 ratings instead of an "R" rating, the movies that would otherwise be made as "R" rated movies, are obviously directed to adult viewers and even as a PG-13, are not directed at the children's audience anyway.

    Mostly the movies that might be otherwise attended by the under seventeen crowd but receive an "R", oftimes the reason for the "R" rating might be excessive violence, language or drug use. As @Vidiot says, you never can tell what will determine the difference between PG-13 and an "R" rating.

    Back in the late 1960's, two movies that I saw received an "R" rating, for the most minor nudity (my guess), Goodby Columbus and the Franco Zeffirelli production of Romeo and Juliet.

    An "R" rating for these movies is just plain silly.
     
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  14. neo123

    neo123 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Northern Kentucky
    So, basically Alien but underwater. LOL

    Notice the release date of January.....the month where movies go to die.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2019
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  15. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Not as much as it used to be. No idea if the movie in question will be a dog, but studios are much more willing to release promising movies in January now...
     
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  16. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
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  17. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    It is hardly surprising with Aladdin and Toy Story 4 both grossing over one billion dollars, worldwide.

    I expected it for TY4 but I never imagined that Adallin would fair this well. With the original being a children's cartoon, I didn't expect it would do what TY4 did. While I thought the movie was infinitely better than the trailers made it appear, I did not think that having "humans" in what was previously an animated feature would work with children and family audiences, go figure?

    Lion King, I knew would knock things out of the ballpark, which it most certainly did with 1.5 billion worldwide and still going strong.

    Even without Avengers: Endgame's first week being included, it still was this year's killer movie, gross wise. I think that Star Wars IX will have a difficult climb to beat it.

    Only a few other significant grossing films from the other studios, played a large part in Disney's success, percentage wise.

    Still, you have to hand success to the mouse and give credit, where credit is due.
     
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  18. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Star Wars has zero chance to surpass Endgame, the reason is China where Star Wars is a non-entity. Also the franchise is dealing with fatigue, Last Jedi dropped 35.5% compared to Force Awakens. will series closure provide a boost? probably but not enough to climb over $2B.
     
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  19. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Well, although if you look at history: the original Star Wars made $775 million, Empire dropped 1/3 to $538 million, and then Jedi went a bit higher with $572 million. I think they accept that every sequel to a major blockbuster will do a bit less, but if they can stay 2/3 as much as the original, they're happy.

    The Force Awakens made $2.068 billion, Last Jedi made $1.33 billion, which is in that same ballpark. I think if they can do $1.3B or above for The Rise of Skywalker, Disney will be happy with their financial success. It's a good question as to whether they care about or want great reviews: I can tell you for a fact that Lucas said, "I stopped reading reviews a few years ago, and if you disbelieve the negative ones, you may as well avoid the positive ones, too." It's anybody's guess if the new film will be objectively good. I thought these two recent Star Wars films were OK but not great, certainly not films that compel me to want to see them multiple times, but I'm sure it'd be different for a kid who grew up with a movie like this. And Solo was terrible (to me), and Rogue One was kinda boring to me (yet still made more than a billion dollars).

    I loved the original 1970s films, but I'm not chomping at the bit to see any of this crap again. I think that puts me firmly in this camp:

    [​IMG]

    And yet I'm looking forward to seeing The Rise of Skywalker, and I have every hope that J.J. Abrams will pull the franchise out of a tail spin and will not only make a lotta money, but also make a movie that people want to see, too.
     
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  20. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I don't think that you can go by the numbers of the last trilogy alone. Endgame was the cumulation of this Avengers series.

    Star Wars has been garnering an audience since 1977. That represents over four generations of viewers, who want to see how the damn thing finally ends.

    You have to look at the series finale in a different kind of light.
     
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  21. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    The other factor is that Disney is going to leave nothing to chance and is going to advertise the absolute living **** out of this thing morning noon and night, probably starting in a few weeks. By the time The Rise of Skywalker opens on December 20th, I bet every single person on this board will have seen at least a dozen different trailers: either on the net, on their mobile devices, on broadcast TV, on streaming, on YouTube, on social media, whatever. And let's not forget radio and billboards (and old fashioned magazines and newspapers). They're going to pull out all the stops to compel everybody to go see it. Preferably multiple times.
     
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  22. NickCarraway

    NickCarraway Forum Resident

    Location:
    Gastonia, NC
    Every time I open Chrome on my phone there's a thumbnail for an Ep9 teaser article.

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. neo123

    neo123 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Northern Kentucky
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  25. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    The reviews for the movie are through-the-roof positive, and I hope it's a terrific movie and does well. I look forward to seeing it -- the trailers are weird and bizarre, so they very clearly took some major risks here. The producers also say there is no chance of "this" Joker appearing in the about-to-be-rebooted Batman with Robert Pattinson in the near future:

    Todd Phillips Says Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker Won’t Meet Robert Pattinson’s Batman
     

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