Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2020

AMC is trying to hold on, but it'll be tough if they're still closed in the next 60 days (which is likely)...

AMC Entertainment Lenders Hire Lawyers for Restructuring Talks

I would hate to see them go under, because (among other reasons) they're among the few Dolby Cinema-certified theaters in town.

 

Someone at some point will buy the movie theaters.

While that is the most obvious effect that the public sees, that is the least of the industries current problems.

Movie production is at a virtual shutdown.

Before you can show movies, you need to make movies.

 

Being a Dr Pepper drinker (I just had one for lunch), I saw this doc awhile ago. Very interesting indeed, and makes me hanker for the stuff with the real sugar (which doesn't seem to come around too often anymore).

 

Its too bad we can't get the real Dr. Pepper, with real cane sugar and no caffeine.

With all the exotic crap on the market, you can't just buy honest, simple soda pop.

How stupid is that?

 

Disney has their own problems: they're losing massive amounts of money with all their theme parks closed.

Disney’s Parks Are Losing Millions Every Day Since Closing

 

Well, I am so tired of companies like this buying up competitors like our local Carmike Cinema for borrowed money and then they go out of business taking the people they bought out with them. That is why we lost Toys R Us. What is this obsession with having to own hundreds of something using debt to acquire it? I just don’t have sympathy for them, and I won’t be happy if we bail them out. I can see why maybe we need to bail out airlines, but not movie theaters! I think we need to see more innovation and competition. We just got a new multiplex, independent, with all the popcorn and drinks you can eat, and very nice seats. That’s where having competition helps the consumer. The bad news is they were well into adding on an Imax type of theatre and I question whether they will be able to weather this out. Talk about terrible timing! They own one other multi in another state. I hope they have a good cushion.

 

Paywall....

 

And I'm afraid to guess who that "someone" would be; probably "someone" who couldn't care less about US culture; that would mean"doctored" films everywhere.

 

OK, how about this...

AMC Theatres: Why Bankruptcy Wouldn’t Spell Bad Business For Chain Or Moviegoing – Deadline

 

A good many foreign companies own US company's.

I would bet that few of them give a crap about US culture. They do care about US money.

This is an article that everyone should read. While it has its focus on the movie industry, it can be conceptually be applied to US industries across the board.

"DOESCHER: Hollywood is relying more and more on the Chinese markets to make profits on movies. That means our films are being written with China in mind."

China is not our friend. If it were up to me, American jobs would be in America.

There exists a great deal of Censorship on the forum here as to anything that can be construed as being critical of China.

Make any reference to "The Virus" and associate it with "China" and see how that goes.

People need to wake up...

China is one gigantic propaganda machine. Censorship is our biggest danger today.

Hollywood is just as guilty as China in that respect.

 

South Park had a hilariously sharp episode on this last season.

 

And as predicted, several industry experts are predicting that AMC Theaters will be going under in another month or so...

AMC Theatres Bankruptcy Likely, Analysts Say – Variety



And the studios are shutting down...

Disney Furloughs Hit Film Labels, Including Marvel and Lucasfilm – Variety

 

What happens if the company is a multi national publicly traded company selling their products all over the world? Duty to the shareholders to maximize profits or duty to country of origin and risk loss of potential export markets?

It's a lot more grey than black and white.

 

There's nothing to like about this story and I don't think this will be the end of it, sadly. The industry will recover eventually, who owns what by the time this is over is the big question.

 

Yes, there is a lot more "grey", too much more...

Doing business in China and with China is not nor has it ever been a good idea and is not ultimately in anyone else's best long term interest, except China's.

 

Yeah, MBA geniuses who ignore the fundamental risk and reliability of their own supply chains there.

 

I, for one wouldn't mind seeing Drive-Ins make a comeback
Miss movie theaters? Here’s a solution from the early 20th century

 

I happened to be thinking about this same thing myself. I think it is a great idea.

 

There's one about 25 miles away from where I live in Pueblo, CO., they usually open 1st of May. No word yet, but hopefully they will open on schedule. Simplify the snack menu, make concessions drive-thru only and it could work.

 

Thanks for the link!

As someone that has some experience with this sort of thing, the writer is correct saying it could be the best thing that could happen to AMC. They are legally off the hook for paying rent, and they can renegotiate any bad leases or cancel them altogether. Excellent opportunity. I don’t see them going away this year. Now, if this is a bad business model (I think it is, and was already heading down that path) then they won’t survive, but this will give them a lifeline for a while. Will be quite interesting to watch.

 

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We live near there too. I love the “idea” of a drive-in. But really, with many of us having nice home theaters and more importantly, a way to see almost anything we want, I don’t see this as something that will help the industry. I don’t know why I would want to sit in my car and watch a film from a distance. More of a great nostalgic memory than a fun reality. It was certainly lots of fun back then, however.

 

I used to live in The Springs myself, 13 years in Briargate.
I think the actual movie-watching would be secondary to the "going-out-and-doing-something" experience, which may be severely curtailed for the foreseeable future...

 

Those were my thoughts also.

Movie theaters, if the do reopen, will certainly not be reopening in May or anytime soon.

Nobody has any kind of clue as to where this virus is going or for how long.

It could very well just diasppear like the seasonal flu, or not.

If it does "go away", there is no guarantee that it won't return after a few months again in the fall.

Really, the government didn't have to order theaters closed. The public had already stopped going well before that.

Left to their own devices, they would have closed on their own. Which many did do.

Absent the income of the big tent pole blockbusters, I doubt that they were as a whole bringing in enough income to be self sustainable.

And there are not enough of these tent pole blockbusters to make their financial situations workable.

The only thing that was saving AMC and Regal was the AMC A-List and the Regal unlimited plans.

Take Away those plans and I see no hope for the large chains.

 

Is it a surprise to anybody that, an industry based on selling dreams to people, doesn't have any contingency plan for the most logical of circumstances.

I'm not saying it's their fault, but if it's fiduciary responsibility you're looking for, try elsewhere...

It's not like a worldwide pandemic was their most pressing challenge, but a responsible industry with this much riding on their house-of-cards success, might have at least brought it up at least in a board meeting sometime, and appointed a "C-Y-A Committee".
At least in the sad, doomed broadcast radio industry, there's still a binder in every studio that tells you when to push the red button... (And, Tom Petty to tell you when to turn off the lights)

 

It's ironic that so much of Hollywood product in the last few years had to do with an existential threat to mankind. Covid isn't that but it is - as they say - disruptive in varying degrees, from minor to serious. Will mainstream disaster-or-related-threats type movies will appeal to a larger audience if and when theaters reopen?

That said I realize production schedules may not allow for that kind of reconfiguring. studios might want to be less concerned with indulging the Chinese market, and produce ten $20 mil films with new, visionary filmmakers than spend 200 mil on Justice League Vs Space Trolls III.

I wonder if anyone in H-Wood has watched Day of the Locusts recently.



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