Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2020

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 4, 2019.

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  1. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident


    Years ago, we used to enjoy going to the dollar movie theaters.

    Sometimes we would see movies that we missed, first run. Sometimes we would see movies that we haven't seen in decades.

    We could get reasonably priced concessions. It was a fun and inexpensive movie going experience.

    A movie theater is still all about the venue and the experience.

    First run, never did mean much of anything to me. I could just as well wait and see it sometime later on media.

    Many people that I know, used to go out and see a movie once a week.

    The movie industry and their pricing put an end to that.

    Now is the time for them to rethink this whole movie thing.

    Not that they will.
     
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  2. AppleCorp3

    AppleCorp3 Forum Resident

    This is kind of what I was thinking (to answer @Deuce66 ) more like old classic films or just classic really popular films. Yes they’re available to stream, but there is a thrill to seeing things on the big screen that is appealing.

    My kids love the TCM series - Sound of Music, Wizard of Oz, South Pacific, etc - and marveled at the spectacle these films. I bet people would flock to see choice 80s films or Disney animated classics on the big screen.
     
  3. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I grew up toward the beginning of the age where every home had a TV set in it. Never knew anything else.

    I grew up on The Wizard of Oz being shown almost every year on TV. I had 6' front projection TV sets bsck in the early 80's. But I never got to see The Wizard of Oz on a movie screen.

    Back in the 90's, the film festival had a special showing at the AMC movie theater where they held the festival.

    Complete with several of the original Munchkins, I may add. People packed the theater with their childten. Everyone loved the movie, the kids were nuts over it.

    For myself, it was a memorable experience.

    Another time, someone with the festival had a connection with the studios and brought in 35mm prints of three science fiction movies.

    They were, War of the Worlds, The Time Machine and Forbidden Planet. It was great seeing these film in a movie theater, on a big screen.

    In my teens, I saw Gone With the Wind in a dollar movie theater. We used to love going to movies in them. Afterward, we would go to a tavern next door for pizza and cheap beer.
     
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  4. AppleCorp3

    AppleCorp3 Forum Resident

    Great story, I share your excitement. I’m not going to lie, I enjoyed it as much (if not more) than the kids. My wife and I had plans for several of the TCM this year.

    I’m telling you, wind back the clock and put classics old and new into the theaters and people would come!
     
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  5. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I think studios won't want to let theaters screen their movies - they'll fear an outbreak and the bad publicity.

    I also don't think a multiplex full of older movies would generate enough revenue to pay the bills.

    Revival screenings get good crowds when they're one-day only events.

    You put "Jaws" up for 4 showings a day and the crowds will be sparse.

    Add to that the reluctance many will feel to venture into theaters and exhibitors will lose buckets of $$$ if they open without new films...
     
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  6. Spencer R

    Spencer R Forum Resident

    Location:
    Oxford, MS
    Before the crisis, my wife and I went to see two or three of the Turner Classic Movie screenings each year at our local theatre. In the past couple of years, we caught North by Northwest, South Pacific, The Graduate, and Saturday Night Fever, among others.

    Every time we went to one of those screenings, there would be five or six people total in the theatre. Including us. There is no way anyone was making money on these screenings - and that was before this crisis. I guess they would be perfect for this era of social distancing, though, because most people aren’t going to leave their house and to pay a premium ticket price to see an old movie.
     
  7. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    You touched on some good points.

    Film festivals tend to have their own audiences. The tagline of our film festival is "A vacation from ordinary film".

    I don't think that you can look at film festival or art house type movies with the same eyes as a regular general release type movie.

    Which is why film festival type movies are shown at film festivals. This gives rise to the existance of film festivals.

    Art house type movie theaters survive in large cities where the sheer numbers, provide enough patrons to fill the seats. Sometimes, you do have smaller culturally artistic communities where these type of theaters survive.

    But to make fair comparisons, I have been to many showings of current release movies in multiplexes where there have only been a handful of people besides myself.

    Some people won't watch movies with subtitles. Most won't watch a movie that was filmed in B&W.

    While many may watch a modern made period piece, most won't watch or embrace a movie that is made in a different time period.

    There are definitely obstacles that would need to be addressed.

    One way or another, theaters, together with the movie studio's are going to have to come up with a workable plan to get people back in the theaters as part of a regular routine.
     
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  8. Jord

    Jord Forum Resident

    Location:
    The Netherlands
    Well, we got our Oscars answer:

    Oscars. Golden Globes Temporarily Change Eligibility Rules Due to COVID-19

    Both The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced temporary changes to the eligibility requirements for their respective Academy Awards and Golden Globe Awards on Tuesday, in light of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

    The 93rd Academy Awards will allow digitally released movies to be eligible, provided the film was already planned for a theatrical release, and is made available for streaming in the Academy Screening Room for Academy members within 60 days of the film's digital release. The Academy Awards typically only allow films that have at least a seven-day theatrical run within Los Angeles County to be eligible for the awards.

    The Academy noted that all Los Angeles County movie theaters have been closed since March 16. When theaters reopen in the United States, the Academy plans to remove these temporary changes to the eligibility rules. However, the Academy will then allow films to qualify by playing not just in a Los Angeles County theater, but also in a venue in New York City, the San Francisco Bay Area, Chicago, Miami, or Atlanta.

    For the 2021 Golden Globes, the awards will now consider all films that already had a planned screening in the greater Los Angeles area beginning from March 15 until theaters reopen, provided that distributors provide all HFPA members with a link or DVD for a screener of the film. The HFPA typically only allows films that screen theatrically, or are available on pay-per-view cable or pay-per-view digital delivery.

    In addition, all Academy voters are now able to participate in the preliminary round of voting for the International Feature Film category. The Academy is also discontinuing DVD screeners, as well as all hardcopy material distribution, beginning in 2021 for the 94th Academy Awards as it transitions to digital screeners, materials, and invitations instead. The Academy announced that it will combine the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing award categories into one Best Achievement in Sound category. It will also change the requirement for the Music (Original Score) category to have a score composed of 60% original music, and a minimum of 80% new music for sequels and franchise films.

    Oscars. Golden Globes Temporarily Change Eligibility Rules Due to COVID-19
     
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  9. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Getting back to the bomb side, here's an interesting article on the biggest bombs of last year, plus some surprising financial info:

    Biggest Box Office Bombs Of 2019: ‘Cats’ And More – Deadline

    The list:

    X-Men: Dark Phoenix
    20th Century Studios/Disney
    Total Loss: $133M

    Terminator: Dark Fate
    Paramount/Skydance/20th Century/Tencent
    Total Loss: $122.6M

    Cats
    Universal/Working Title/Amblin
    Total Loss: $113.6M

    Gemini Man
    Paramount/Skydance
    Total Loss: $111.1M

    Missing Link
    UAR/Annapurna/Laika
    Total Loss: $101.3M

    I saw every one of them except for Missing Link (which actually got pretty good reviews), and they were haaaaaaarible. Cats I had to see just to say I was there, and it was actually kind of hilarious when the audience laughed at the wrong things. That's very bad when that happens. I'm amazed that Cats was not the biggest bomb of the year.
     
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  10. kouzie

    kouzie Forum Resident

    Location:
    Batavia, IL
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  11. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    I don’t think it’s a good idea for them to start being so choosy about they will and will not show. They’re not showing anything now, are on the verge of bankruptcy, and have no idea how many people will show up to theaters when they do reopen. Beggars can’t be choosers, as they say.

    Interestingly, I have not felt the desire to watch even one film since I’ve been stuck at home for the past 7 weeks. So it’s not like I’m diving whole-heartedly into streaming. Part of the issue is it is difficult to know what streaming service is showing what. I’m not going to subscribe to all of them. Maybe I’m just getting out of the movie habit now that theaters are no longer available.
     
  12. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    They are all in the same neighborhood. Some beat cats out probably due to bigger budgets.

    Plus Cats had a more narrow market audience to begin with.

    Cats would have been better served in a more fantasy type setting like, The Wizard of Oz.

    In that event, use costumes like Oz and ditch the CGI kitties completely.

    It could have also done better if it was made as a completely animated movie.

    You didn't miss much, I expected it to be better than it was. The same with Ugly Dolls and Wonder Park.

    I don't think the Missing Link style animation is going to go over any more. I think that style is pretty much finished.
     
  13. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I'll say this: animated films are among the only films that still can be made under pandemic conditions. Some studios are having artists and technicians work from home, sending their designs, frames, and scenes in daily on a private internet connection. As long as the connection holds up, they can get work done every single day. Recording the actors' voices is still a bit of a problem, but there are workarounds for everything.
     
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  14. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I would think that is the least of the productions problems.

    I understand, that for whatever reasons, some animated productions record each vocal track sepatetely.
     
  15. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Senior Member

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    I think this means I'm eligible for best supporting Post in a Thread.
     
  16. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    They've done that for years and years and years. There are animated films where the actors have never actually met each other, and yet they're in lots of scenes together. Robin Williams was the nominal star of Aladdin (as just one example), and he always worked alone, plus he was given the ability to ad-lib as much as he wanted to. Animation voice actors have said how great it is to still act, get direction, do all the things an actor does, except they don't have to dress up, don't need makeup, and don't need to get their hair done.
     
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  17. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    They can also collect paychecks when their real movie careers are on the rocks.
     
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  18. AppleCorp3

    AppleCorp3 Forum Resident

    And for ones in demand, can enjoy great success - with little of the annoyance that fame can bring!
     
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  19. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    I think that policy is only one big Universal hit away from getting rescinded! That’s just foolish and will never hold. If the theaters aren’t careful, they may find they will have nothing to show!
     
  20. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    People get in to a movie habit and they can also get out of a movie habit.

    If studios want to see theaters survive, then they will need to give theaters the first shot at showing new release movies.

    There has to be some hook to get people to attend theaters.

    Streaming was never important to me. I have never streamed a movie, nor have I ever hooked a TV set of mine up to the Internet.

    If I am not going to see a movie in a theater, I prefer to purchase and own the media. I am fine with waiting a bit.
     
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  21. gabacabriel

    gabacabriel Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bristol, UK
    Funnily enough, I saw none of them except for Missing Link (got dragged along by the kids - it was a bit meh, to be honest). They simply did not appeal in any way, shape, or form.

    It could be argued that I should have gone to all of them as apart of my job (I teach University animation and VFX) but........nah.
     
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  22. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
  23. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Senior Member

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    They may not have anything to show even if they are careful.
     
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  24. PH416156

    PH416156 Alea Iacta Est

    Location:
    Europe
    I understand that they're doing that because of the virus crisis: nothing changes if you have to evaluate story, screenplay, actors' performances; even a DVD will suffice but...good luck rating sound and cinematography in your living room unless you have a top set up at home with speakers rightly positioned and a super Tv -correctly calibrated of course.

    This is the kind of stuff you judge experiencing a movie at the theater.

    And merging sound mixing and sound editing into one category? Boooooo :thumbsdow
     
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  25. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I kind of felt I had to see some of them because I knew people who worked on them, and there were others that I knew would be total trainwrecks (like Cats) that had to be appreciated on the big screen. But my predictions for last year were not too far off.

    I'm kind of picky about the animated films I see, and while I'm generally a big fan of what Disney, Dreamworks, and Pixar do, everybody else usually falls into an "eh" category. That includes Universal/Illumination's Minions and Secret Life of Pets, which I can sorta take or leave. These weird lower-budget movies like Missing Link just leave me cold: crap animation, crappy stories, crappy voices... it's a festival of crap.
     
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