Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2020

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 4, 2019.

  1. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I think it is typical for hobbiest and other amateur enthusiasts to get ingrossed in details that don't have any particular importance to professionals in that field.

    I wonder if William Shatner ever bothered to look over the blueprints of the NCC-1701?

    Do studio executives who green light a film, concern themselves with the color gamma of the finished product?

    I think most people concern themselves with the information that it takes to do their job.

    Having four decades of experience in the film business gives you an advantage to better interface with more individuals in the business, and be able to discuss different aspects of the movies.
     
  2. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Touched a nerve, eh? I get what you’re saying though.
     
  3. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Naw, I'm just always surprised when people can't grasp the obvious.

    Yeah, when my acquaintance Leon Silverman was VP of post-production over at Disney, I had a 15-minute conversation with him specifically about gamma range and what Disney was going to do for that. (I think you mean "color gamut," which is a different thing, but all of these things are related.) Leon is now the director of post for Netflix, and believe me, they sweat gamma range and color space for everything they do, because some of it plays back on computers, some of it plays back on home sets, and some of it actually winds up in theaters. They are aware of the specs and the top people in charge of technology (like the Chief Technical Officers and so on) really know this stuff and do concern themselves with resolution and gamma and color space and compression and all that other stuff. They have meetings and charts and Powerpoint presentations and all that stuff. And it's even worse when it concerns money.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2020
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  4. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I believe that I read somewhere that Dolby Vision first appeared in a theatrical movie release in Disney's, Tomorrowland.
     
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  5. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    It’s mega shark vs giant dinosaur at the US box office. Twenty-seven years after its first release, Steven Spielberg’s 1993 dinosaur-rampage blockbuster Jurassic Park has regained the number one spot at the US box office, just beating another another back-catalogue Spielberg blockbuster Jaws, in a commercial landscape severely affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

    Deadline reports that Jurassic Park earned just over $517,000 over the weekend of 19-21 June, having displaced last week’s top film The Invisible Man, which had earned around $383,000. The figures derive from an industry report produced by ratings agency Comscore, which stopped publicly reporting box office results in March after the pandemic took hold. According to the Hollywood Reporter, Jurassic Park played in 230 locations across the US, the vast majority being drive-in cinemas.

    Jaws achieved second place with $516,000 from 187 venues, 45 years after its initial release in 1975. ET the Extra Terrestrial and Raiders of the Lost Ark came further down the list, at numbers 7 and 18 respectively. The best-performing new movie was the horror film Followed, which took the number eight slot with $127,000.

    Comscore’s report suggests that the tiny improvements in box office results demonstrate that some appetite for cinemagoing remains, but audiences remain wary while the pandemic retains its grip. The total income for the weekend was around $3.8m, which contrasts with more than $200m for the same weekend in 2019. Drive-ins remain much more popular than traditional indoor cinemas, comprising 160 of the top grossing 201 venues.

    US cinemas are due to open in much larger numbers in July, with the first nationwide cinema release of a new film projected to be the Russell Crowe thriller Unhinged on 10 July. Disney’s warrior epic Mulan is due for release on 24 July, and Christopher Nolan’s spy thriller Tenet on 31 July.
     
  6. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    Yeah, why not just make the Avengers vs Justice League vs All Monsters vs Toy Story vs Avatar vs Larry Crowne Ultimate Movie? In 4-D Double Ultra Imax.
     
  7. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I think that Tomorrowland was the first Dolby Vision film I saw at a Dolby Cinema, which in that case was Disney's El Capitan Theater in Hollywoo in May of 2015. It did look very good (though the movie itself was horrible and tanked). Dolby Vision is basically twice as bright as a regular theatrical image, with maybe 15-20% more color range.

    The first demo I saw of Dolby Vision was Star Trek: The Motion Picture, which Dolby and Paramount did as an experiment and showed at several technical conventions like NAB, SMPTE, and CES around 2013-2014. The idea for Dolby Vision actually goes back to an obscure tech company called Brightside, which had been working on it since the early 2000s, but it took Dolby to actually get the idea to work.

    We live in sad times when a 30-year-old film gets reissued and becomes the #1 theatrical film in America and barely makes half a million dollars. I hope the movie business is still standing a year from now. Note that Technicolor went bankrupt yesterday (though it's a financial move, not necessarily the end).
     
  8. Grand_Ennui

    Grand_Ennui Forum Resident

    Location:
    WI

    Throw in "The People vs. Larry Flynt" and then I think you'd have yourself a movie.
     
  9. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Got to keep the faith, the entire movie industry production and exhibition has been shut down for over 3 months. I'm not surprised at these results.
     
  10. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I think this tells us an important story.

    That is that the theater is still a medium of choice for the public.

    In absence of new openings, naturally, the pickings are scarce.

    But, I think this does show that people still have affections for good movies, even years later, after they have been on home video, streaming and cable for many years.

    It is simply a given that there is not going to be a big rush of people attending the cinemas, given the current state of affairs.

    If there were other movie choices, maybe people would turn out for a new release movie, provided that it was something they really want to see.

    Even then, the numbers are going to remain small.

    With that in mind, it just doesn't make good financial sense to put a big budget film in theaters, when the seats will remain mostly empty.

    I think that now might be an excellent time to release smaller independent films, if only to grease the machine and get people comfortably going back into the theaters.

    It should prove to be interesting to see what Mulan and Tenant do at the box office next month.

    On one hand, you have two tent pole films that tend to bring out the people. On the other hand, the industry is faced with people who are now reluctant to go to a crowded theater.

    Either way, after the release of these two movies, we are going to get a good idea what is to follow.

    Things are likely to coast along for another month or two. Then, regardless of what is happening with Covid-19, the flu season will start back up again.

    All it is going to take is a few people coughing in a public place, to scare people away, even if it is only a common cold.

    I feel that the industry is going to be on very thin ice. I don't see any way that big budget movies are going to work at the box office for some foreseeable time.

    I think the future is going to be movies with smaller budgets. This is going to have many in the business reevaluating their paychecks (which might not be a bad thing).
     
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  11. John Moschella

    John Moschella Forum Resident

    Location:
    Christiansburg, VA
    It is not really that complicated. These films will not do well. How can they with social distancing rules added to the fact that many/most will not go regardless.
    Everything changes with a distributed vaccine and this will happen before the year is out.

    Operation "warp speed" basically takes the risk out of the hands of drug companies so they will actually manufacter (in large quantities) a vaccine before it has even passed the phase 3 trial. The taxpayers are footing the bill for this, otherwise no company could take such a risk. So as soon as a vaccine passes phase 3 they are good to go.
     
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  12. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    My fear is where we're going to be in December.
     
  13. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    And there is zero chance I’m getting vaccinated until an awful lot of science is out there that it is not harmful and it is effective. I wonder how many healthy people will feel the same. Sorry, but there are far too many ulterior motives to rush it out. If you are older and at risk, I concede that’s a different issue and perhaps those folks should. Will be interesting to see the response.
     
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  14. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Your national chains are multiplex theaters.

    At any time, there are only so many big movies out.

    Most theaters only average 20% occupancy rates.

    Since distribution nowdays is digital, theaters can show tent pole movies on as many screens.

    Even with social distancing it is still possible for films to do well at the theaters, although longer release dates will be necessary.

    The problem is not social distancing, many places are doing well with social distancing in place.

    Movies are just going to be a hard sell, to get people into the theaters in the first place.

    A Covid-19 vaccine is a definite maybe. Even then, it is doubtful that people will be quick to embrace it.

    At best, I think that it would still take a year at a minimum for a vaccine to have any significant effect on the movie theater business.

    With the economy being brought to a grinding halt, I also don't think that people are going to be so quick to shell out money for the costs of movie tickets and high concession prices.

    Although, since I am in a tourist destination, I have seen that the rebound attendance at live shows, concession stands and other attractions, does not seem to be effected by those who are visiting the arera.

    People, including families have been locked away for months are now out in numbers and are spending money.
     
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  15. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    In which case you aren't going out for years which is the amount of time it takes to develop/test/follow up etc....
     
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  16. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    Maybe not...not worth getting dead for but I’m not in the high risk group either. That’s the main reason I would be reluctant to take the vaccine but to be fair I don’t get an annual flu shot anyway. My dad is 82 and I would certainly expect he would take a chance on it.
     
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  17. John Moschella

    John Moschella Forum Resident

    Location:
    Christiansburg, VA
    I'm with you on this.
     
  18. mBen989

    mBen989 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Scranton, PA
    "Gentlemen, it's been a pleasure making movies with you."

     
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  19. mBen989

    mBen989 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Scranton, PA
    (Although if we're going for historical accuracy,...)

     
  20. MikaelaArsenault

    MikaelaArsenault Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Hampshire
  21. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Jon Stewart is smart and funny and he was very good as a comedic political commentator.

    Filmmaking just may not be his thing. Haven't seen the new one, but I thought "Rosewater" was pretty meh:

    Rosewater [Blu-Ray] (2014)
     
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  22. Grand_Ennui

    Grand_Ennui Forum Resident

    Location:
    WI

    I read an article about it in the local newspaper. Doesn't sound like anything I'd have any interest in, and it sounds like all it really does is make everyone in WI seem like some sort of hick.
     
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  23. MikaelaArsenault

    MikaelaArsenault Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Hampshire
    The movie doesn’t sound interesting to me either.
     
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  24. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    IDK - it seemed like he devolved in to showing out-of-context B-roll, and then responding with a quick cut to him looking shocked. That just generated 'nervous laughter'. He's articulate and can think on his feet, but that doesn't mean he's a filmmaker. In fact, it might mean he's not.
     
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  25. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Isn't that what I said? :confused:
     

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