Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2020

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 4, 2019.

  1. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    I agree, I think Disney is experimenting at both ends, let's see how many people pay the $29.99 versus how many new subscribers we can get with each launch of a new movie (I think working this angle will only work for so long). Pixar movies aren't cheap to make and promote so I doubt they'll be able to re-coup that investment with new subscribers alone, you would need around 2.4 million new members to stick around for 1 year just to break even. The industry is in a very dangerous place right now, the traditional model is being turned upside down and now the economics of movie making no longer work. I predict that by the end of 2021 we'll know how the business will work moving forward.
     
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  2. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA

    I went to see "Broken Heart Gallery" at my local AMC yesterday afternoon and it was a ghost town. Had theater to myself.

    Granted, I wouldn't expect a multiplex to be too crowded on a late Thursday afternoon, but still... it was eerily quiet.

    I'll continue to support AMC as long as I can, but it seems increasingly untenable for them to keep the lights on when they can't show anything "bigger" than Robert De Niro grandpa comedies!

    The loss of "Soul" from the calendar is another blow.

    What's the next potential hit on the calendar, "Free Guy" December 11? The movie whose trailer already jokes about the probability its release date will change again? :sigh:
     
  3. Jord

    Jord Forum Resident

    Location:
    The Netherlands
    Disney says its 'primary focus' for entertainment is streaming — announces a major reorg
    Disney says its ‘primary focus’ for entertainment is streaming — announces a major reorg
    POINTS
    • Disney is restructuring its media and entertainment divisions.
    • In order to further accelerate its direct-to-consumer strategy, the company will be centralizing its media businesses into a single organization that will be responsible for content distribution, ad sales and Disney+.
    • The change comes as the global coronavirus pandemic has crippled its theatrical business and ushered more customers toward its streaming options.
     
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  4. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    Notable quote from the above:

    “I would not characterize it as a response to Covid,” CEO Bob Chapek told CNBC’s Julia Boorstin on “Closing Bell” on Monday. “I would say Covid accelerated the rate at which we made this transition, but this transition was going to happen anyway.”

    “We are tilting the scale pretty dramatically [toward streaming],” Chapek said on “Closing Bell,”
     
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  5. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Not exactly what the theatre industry wanted to hear at this point in time.
     
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  6. Banter

    Banter Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Columbus, Ohio
    With the end of the Paramount Decree... I think Disney's goal is to eventually own theatres in major cities to have complete control of their product and maximize profit. We will probably be walking out of a Disney Store gift shop any time we want to see a blockbuster movie in the theatre.

    Like in Cloud Atlas, movies will just be called Disneys in the future.
     
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  7. budwhite

    budwhite Climb the mountains and get their good tidings.

    Location:
    Götaland, Sverige
    Avatar 2 and 3 going straight to stream and 4 or 5 will never be finished? Yeah I can totally see that
     
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  8. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Cameron should have gotten on the ball and started cranking out sequels years ago!
     
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  9. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Cameron doesn't "crank out" anything, post Avatar he was busy with the Marianna trench expedition (I think that took up a few years) before deciding which movie property to pursue (Alita was handed off to Robert Rodriguez to direct, they used WETA and Cameron's Lightstorm team for world creation, CGI and effects/tech development). Avatar sequels were stuck in script development hell for 2-3 years as they decided to map out exactly what story they wanted to tell, once that was nailed down they moved on to production but not before they could crack the underwater motion capture problem, essential for the first sequel. As for the story expect references to the Trail of Tears, forced relocations, betrayals within/outside the humans/clans, more conflict and inevitable battle sequences.

    Production details - a massive list of people involved in this project.

    Avatar 2 (2022) - Full Cast & Crew - IMDb


    From New Zealand, a glimpse of a small part of the Science Lab set, a key facility at the RDA’s new Bridgehead installation.

    [​IMG]

    Garrett Warren, 2nd Unit Director, gives stuntman Steve Brown some notes before a take. Garrett, Richard Bluck (2nd Unit DP) and the Kiwi team have been getting some great shots. Keep it up.
    [​IMG]

    Sigourney Weaver at work.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    No way on 2 and 3 going straight to streaming.

    If Cameron has to go to empty buildings and run the projector himself, those movies will run theatrically!
     
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  11. budwhite

    budwhite Climb the mountains and get their good tidings.

    Location:
    Götaland, Sverige
    I do hope they get a theatrical premiere. But a wide release like before March 2020? Probably not. That is not realistic the ways things are going.
     
  12. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    "Avatar 2" isn't scheduled to hit screens until December 2022!

    Not sure if you're "not realistic" comment is because you think there won't be skillions of screens available anymore, because COVID will still have theaters under capacity, or both.

    2+ years away is a loooong time out to make predictions, though!
     
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  13. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Well considering that the original was back in 2009, I think we can safely say that he isn't exactly cranking out anything...
     
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  14. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Nice to see the Game of Thrones dragon getting some new work :cool:

     
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  15. budwhite

    budwhite Climb the mountains and get their good tidings.

    Location:
    Götaland, Sverige
    Both. I think the theatrical experience as we know it are gone. No more big expensive blockbusters.
    I'm expecting more reasonable priced movies with better scripts(one can hope), and more limited "tv-series"
     
  16. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I think that at some point, people will get tired of staying home and watching things on TV.

    The movies survived home media because people like to have a night out now and then.
     
  17. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    I stay home and watch little on TV. I can’t adapt to streaming because most of the time, when I learn about a movie I want to see, it is on a streaming service I don’t subscribe to. The latest example happened today: the new film of David Byrne’s musical American Utopia is on HBO. I only subscribe to Netflix and Amazon, and there is just no more money for me to endlessly throw away on these subscriptions.

    Pretty soon I’m going to stop reading movie reviews entirely because I’m tired of being disappointed.

    And I can’t bring myself to go to a theater yet. I just can’t do it. And trust me, I am sick to death of staying home alone endlessly other than work or grocery shopping. (Not that there’s anything playing at any theater right now that I even want to see.)
     
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  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    That seems to be the issue. I could go to the theater but there isn't anything that I want to see. What's the point?

    On the other hand, it seems tgat we are going to have an endless supply of streaming services to subscribe to. That doesn't work either.

    What's next? I haven't a clue...
     
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  19. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I'll take that bet. IMO, 0% chance that expensive blockbusters are dead...
     
  20. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    Box Office: Liam Neeson's 'Honest Thief' Pilfers $3.7M in U.S. Debut | Hollywood Reporter

    The Nightmare Before Christmas' became the latest catalogue title to prosper, while 'Tenet' clears $50 million domestically and $334 million worldwide.

    Liam Neeson's turn as older action star continued over the weekend as his film Honest Thief collected a solid $3.7 million in its U.S. box office debut.

    The movie, which marks the first release from Tom Ortenberg's revived Open Road Films, topped yet another quiet frame in terms of moviegoing amid the ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic.

    As of last Friday, Seattle theaters were allowed to open, whereas New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Saturday that cinemas outside of New York City can open if they are in counties meeting certain criteria.

    Honest Thief has earned a total of $4.2 million when factoring in Canadian grosses.

    "Moviegoers, particularly couples, came back to theatres to enjoy Honest Thief in a theatrical environment and were rewarded with a movie rated 88 percent on the audience score from Rotten Tomatoes," said Ortenberg, who recently relaunched Open Road with Josh Green’s Raven Capital.

    The movie played particularly well in Miami, Chicago, San Diego and Atlanta.

    101 Studios' The War With Grandpa took in $2.5 million in its sophomore session for a 10-day-domestic total of $7.3 million.

    Christopher Nolan's Tenet, from Warner Bros, grossed $1.6 million domestically for a North American total of $50.6 million and a worldwide tally of $333.9 million. The film saw a huge boost from Seattle reopenings; five of the top-10 grossing theaters were in the Seattle area.

    Perennial favorite The Nightmare Before Christmas became the latest catalogue to take advantage of a relatively empty marquee, grossing $1.3 million for Disney. Fellow Disney title Hocus Pocus earned $756,000 in its second weekend.

    Paramount's debuted Love and Monsters on premium VOD and in 387 theaters, where it earned $255,000.
     
  21. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Normally I would see this in the cinema and double dip get the blu ray as well. Looks like just a physical media purchase.
     
  22. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    IDK that Tenet was ever going to be the movie to inspire a return to movies. I don't know that it would have done that well in a normal time. I'd still think you sort of need a mix of new films. Beyond that, I'd go see a 70 mm Lawrence of Arabia or Bridge on the River Kwai or Barry Lyndon. That would get me going more than Disney tripe.

    Or even a film like Friedkin's Sorceror, or Aldrich's 'Vera Cruz. Some films should really be seen in a theater.

    What the hell, do some creative booking of older and recent films - a double feature of "Freebie and the Bean" with "The Nice Guys".
     
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