Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Jan 7, 2022.

  1. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Too many factors at play, market restrictions if any due to Covid, was it available to stream, timing of the release, target demographic it's clear that older audiences have not returned to pre-Covid levels and so on. Who knows how these movies would have done if released in 2019 or prior.
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  2. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    That's what I was basically referring to. If there wasn't a pandemic the yearly box office was running a bit over 11B for a few years leading up to 2020.

    2021 was about half of 2019's box office revenue. More streaming options because of the pandemic, movie releases pushed back, etc...

    But if you just took those 2021 numbers and took into consideration that last years box office had half the revenue of recent pre-pandemic years, these movies, under different circumstances could have done twice as well as they did.
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  3. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
    Theaters keep half the money up front, so half the box office is already gone. Studios traditionally spend almost the original movie budget (say, between $50M and $100M on advertising and promotion), so that's another fee. The pandemic has added more interest payments on top of all the millions spent because a lot of these films -- particularly West Side Story -- were supposed to come out last year. Carrying all that money on the books for an extra year is rough.

    I don't think a $100 million film has to necessarily make $400M to break even, but by simple math, it'd have to make over $200M, maybe $250M. And then it'd have to do $300M to be make a profit. Even more to become a big hit. Bear in mind that studios specify the definition of "profit" in their contracts, so you might be guaranteed a certain percentage of profit after the movie breaks even, but if that never happens -- which is often the case -- you won't get a dime.

    I think you're absolutely right, and your numbers look correct to me.
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  4. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
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  5. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    This 355 thing is reminiscent of a certain Charlie's Angeles movie...
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  6. carlwm

    carlwm Forum Resident

    I've got less and less intersted in going to the cinema over the last decade or so. Looking at that list makes it feel like a wise choice.
  7. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Funny thing, adults and seniors used to be the primary movie going audience.

    Now that I am in that group, there is usually nothing I want to see.
  8. MekkaGodzilla

    MekkaGodzilla Forum Resident

    Westerville, Ohio
    I dunno. Plumbing isn't as popular as it was 30 years ago.
  9. adm62

    adm62 Senior Member

    Toronto, Canada
    Ok thanks I get the cinemas getting cuts now, don't understand why advertising and promotion is not included in the original budget. If something is going to be spent in any project it needs to be included in any budget planning.
  10. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    You're not an accountant :cool: we like to put things into buckets and those buckets have sub-buckets and those sub-buckets have buckets and so on....if James Cameron wants to know how much was spent on plywood for set construction on set#2 in New Zealand you better have an answer for him.
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  11. Jim B.

    Jim B. Forum Resident

    Looking at the amazing Spider-Man figures it's obvious studios/directors/actors are being hugely disingenuous blaming their relative failures on the pandemic.

    Make a good film and people will go out and see it.
    PH416156 likes this.
  12. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    I don't think the quality matters that much, there are plenty of critically acclaimed movies that went nowhere at the box office, I think the brand name matters more now than ever before. People like Spider-Man and they will turn out to see a new one, if its great then bonus.
  13. Jmac1979

    Jmac1979 Forum Resident

    Louisville, KY
    But is Spiderman a return to prominence, or will this be similar to the music industry where you have Taylor Swift and Adele who still sell records the way artists did 20 years ago but everyone else doesn't and for most modern artists, if you can even sell 300,000 copies of an album in the US today, it's considered a success when 300k wasn't even a blockbuster opening sales week in 2000? That's what I'm wondering. I've followed the music biz and how album sales have collapsed over the course of the last 20 years and while people noticed people actually BUYING Swift and Adele records, it didn't exactly resuscitate the industry as we know it, just meant two artists are able to sell big numbers.

    Will the movie industry get back to the point where suits are disappointed that (x) "only" opened with $116 million, or are we in a new normal where Spiderman and maybe the next Avengers movie make big bucks but everything else will be lucky to max out in the $75-150 range and be viewed as a comparative success the way album sales have died due to the internet?
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  14. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    The music industry generates 85% of its revenue via streaming and they are doing very well. Movies are kind of stuck in between models right now due to Covid and don't seem to know what to do. I think 2022 will see a return back to the old model for one last attempt, if there are too many box office failures a complete rethink will be in order and the movie theatre industry will be in big trouble.
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  15. Jmac1979

    Jmac1979 Forum Resident

    Louisville, KY
    I think the quick turnaround to streaming/home media also doesn't even help. I work at a store and noticed before Christmas we were already carrying No Time To Die, thinking "didn't this just come out like six weeks ago?" (really more like 2 months but still). There's hardly the sort of theatrical exclusivity that used to be the case where you might wait six months for the movie to come out on video and then about a full year before it starts making the HBO/Showtime rounds. Nowadays you know whatever you want will be available to watch at home in some form within 3 months of release (Halloween and Dune are both coming out tomorrow on physical, and even in both cases Halloween was available via Peacock and Dune via HBO Max), unless you absolutely have to see this movie right away (as was the case with Spiderman which had a lot of goodwill building up, and with the open secret that two previous Spiderman actors were returning to the role made a lot of people really curious to see how everything plays out and not want to wait until March or April), most people are fine. I love Lady Gaga and I have interest in House Of Gucci but awareness that the movie is coming out on blu-ray next month made me sit it out because while I had interest in it, I didn't want to see it "that badly" to plan 3 hours around it whereas Ghostbusters, Halloween and Spiderman (and Scream soon) made me actually buy a ticket because I wanted to see it asap.
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  16. Jim B.

    Jim B. Forum Resident

    I disagree. It makes a huge difference. People went to see, for example, the Eternals or Shang Chi, but neither that great so it was a one and done.

    People have seen Spider-Man several times because it is a great fun film.

    Big box office totals like that are largely down to many repeat viewings, and you only get repeat viewings when people like the film.

    This current franchise is kind of unique as each film has seen an increase in box office. It's usually the opposite.

    This amazing box office isn't just the brand name by any means. It's in the top 10 of all-time now.
  17. Not me!
    That movie is perfect as is.
    Can't even begin to imagine the casting....
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  18. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Sheboygan, WI
    Hulk and Submariner must be checking those grosses (imagine them poolside at the Chateau Marmont reading Variety. Well Namor would be IN the pool, Hulk on 4 lounge chairs) and saying "Him? Insect powers? Bah!" then start ruminating in the 3rd person about themselves and how they'd do so much better.

    Or just team up against the 'airbreathers'.

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  19. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    My comments weren't specific to just Spider-Man, its the industry in general (see the top 25 of 2021 list I posted upthread). Franchise brand names are getting the vast majority of the $$$$. I haven't seen Shang Chi but I assume there's an end credits scene? it wouldn't surprise me if there's a sequel to that one assuming it ties in with where the MCU is headed.
  20. Simon A

    Simon A Arrr!

    Jaws-nado... :winkgrin:
  21. jason88cubs

    jason88cubs Forum Resident

    I hope SCREAM is a big hit but I'm afraid these covid cases will make a impact
  22. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
    Advertising, publicity, and "distribution" is absolutely included in the expenses... just not the published budget. All the internal documents list it, but they're not likely to share that with most people. They know up front exactly what the marketing expenses will be. I know of films that were killed before they were made because the marketing people said, "we don't know how to sell this movie."
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  23. Kevin In Choconut Center

    Kevin In Choconut Center Offensive Coordinator

    Binghamton, NY
    I'd like to see the new "Scream" movie, but the local AMC theater shows it running just once a day, with a 7 p.m. start time starting Friday. Of course, as we all know, the "start" time isn't really when the film starts. I'd be cutting things way too close on catching the last bus of the night that serves the Town Square Mall. And I am not about to risk having to spend $10 to $15 dollars on a cab to get home.
  24. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Which was probably the correct decision. It is the job of the marketing people knowing how to market. If they are not sure that there is an audience for the film or that there is enough of an audience to warrant the expense of producing the film, then making the film is probably not a good business decision.

    Think Cat's and WSS, two which come immediately to mind...

    Probably the same reason that they remake films. They remember that they once had an audience for that movie.

    Makes sense, if it worked once, it should work again. Some logic in this way of thinking. Saves the studios from having to figure out if and what audience the have or may have for a new and original script.
  25. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    Horror gets a young audience, and they seem less likely to feel dissuaded by COVID.

    I'm not sure how much of an audience there is for the "Scream" franchise these days, though. "4" was a bit of a bomb 11 years ago, and I'm not sure why this one will bring back viewers...
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