Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

It currently rates 84% on RT and 71 on Metacritic. Doesn’t sound like a dud.

 

Interesting, I wonder what the logic is behind the streaming decision. They must experience bumps in subscribers when they do this.

 

I think they thought "Strange" would be doing better numbers , in its 3rd weekend...
C&D would have easily been #1 this weekend, if they did release the film in theaters ...
another screw-up , just like "Turning Red"

 

Still thinking Dr Strange takes a huge drop next week. No question
it is an unqualified success. Still WOM was below average
and the legs , have not been , what they should
have been.

 

In its 3rd weekend it has become the #1 movie of 2022, Worldwide gross of $803.2 million. Domestic weekend #3 drop is 48.8%.

The first Doctor Strange (2016) grossed $677.8 million worldwide which included $109.2 m from China. Take China out of the # = $568.6 million.

DS 2 is already UP 41.3% over the first if you exclude China, UP 18.5% if you leave China in.

I think Marvel/Disney are quite happy with these results, it might not reach $1B worldwide but it's a substantial improvement over the first Strange movie.

 

After the first weekend , they were expecting $500 Mil Domestic

 

I wonder what this would be based on? "They were expecting", seems like a guess, maybe wishful thinking?

I would doubt that it was based on any kind of rational reasoning?

The post pandemic box office has not been kind to movies in general. Not that it was the fault of any movie itself.

DS2 is only 25M behind The Batman, which is the #1 box office draw so far this year. It is over 100M ahead of Spiderman, which is an iconic character in both movies and the comic book realm. (That is not a fair comparison, given that Spiderman was a December release.)

I can't possibly see anyone reasonably having higher expecting, given the current movie marketplace?

The rest of this years movies are not hardly moving the meter at all.

 

Analysis: What Gives a Marvel Movie Legs? - The Numbers DS2 , having a horrible multiplier

 

Who is they? Disney? do you have any information to support this?

DS2 is currently @ $342M domestic, domestic gross for DS 1 was $232.6 million.

Wk#1 May 6-12: $230.859 million
Wk#2 May 13-19: $79.62
Wk#3 May 20-26: $39.8 (assume 50% drop over prior week)

$20.0 + $10.0 + $5.0 + $2.5 = $397.8 = round to $400 million, it might get a bit of a Memorial Day weekend bump.

 

I can think of a few that will leave Doctor Strange eating dust.

 

No doubt that Top Gun and the Dinosaur movie will top it out!

 

I'm not so sure Top Gun will do well internationally, we'll see. If the pre-sales in my immediate area are any indication it will fall well below DS2 and The Batman. Those two along with Spider-Man had sellouts or near sellouts for most of the first weekend (all showings).

 

It's an all American type film by its nature, so I'm not sure how the international box office will fare?

Not being based on a comic book would suggest to me that the audience demographic will be different, more adult oriented.

This would also mean a crowd who has seen the original and a crowd that is likely not to buy advance tickets.

Consider also, often when a movie attendance is front loaded like DS2 and Morbius, they will often experience a greater percentage drop off in subsequent weeks.

 

I absolutely loved it. I haven't liked many of these Disney "reboot" things, but this nailed it. Whether it was lack of interest in the IP (ugh, I actually typed that - I meant, Chip and Dale. Rescue Rangers), I do not know. I do recall the theatrical Ducktales movie not doing well, but this is decades ago, but I also felt at the time a lack of interest and promotion from Disney.

The Chip N Dale move balanced the whole meta situation in a Roger Rabbit world and didn't seem to sacrifice quality (it's nowhere near as good as Roger Rabbit, but that film stands on its own - but don't worry, they knock Zemeckis directly in the film!) That's the kind of fun it is.

Tight story, visuals great, this one worked. Don't know how they tally individual successes with streaming these days (how to identify X is reason User signed up? Or is this for retention?). Box office receipts much easier!

Also, amazed at the licensing and clearing that occurred. I will rewatch to catch everything but man... from R. Crumb to Pickle Rick... to Warner Properties.. which seems like it would never work in todays world (HBO Max?).

They snuck a really charming winner of a film in there..

 

tom cruse's movie beat the doctor strange. can't imagine

 

to be fair , "DS" is in its 4th week

 

Meh. I’m not a gambling man by nature, but what’s the spread for Top Gun underperforming expectations?

 

If you want a fair comparison Dr. Strange made $201 million domestic in its first 4 days (May 6-9). Also the Monday was not a holiday.

 

I think it does well domestically, I'm not so sure about Int'l. China has already said "no".

 

Excellent summary. Great Saturday afternoon family film.

 

Big fan of Downton Abbey! I'm glad to see it doing well. I may just venture to my local theater to check it out. It'll be the 1st movie I've seen in years (in the theater)!

 

The CEO of IMAX was on CNBC this morning indicating that Top Gun will be a huge hit and has already done very well in Europe. It was a fairly long segment.

Imax CEO Richard Gelfond: 'Top Gun' will remind people why they go to the movies

And this from Bloomberg
Imax CEO Richard Gelfond: 'Top Gun' will remind people why they go to the movies

 

Ugh, mentioning that turkey in relation to this has me thinking I'll be fine just waiting for it to hit Redbox. I was looking forward to this Doc Strange movie, but the little I've heard about it hasn't enticed me. Jesus, I hope its nowhere near as awful as Dark Phoenix, though.