Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

I heard it was above 90% the first week or weekend, which is why as a kid in the 80s the same movie was often shown for 13 weeks, not so much due to popularity as it was that theaters didn’t begin to see a decent percentage of ticket sales until something like the third week. Anyways, that’s what I heard long long ago.

 

Geez.. really? That’s crazy.

 

It’s one situation that I thought where theaters were nuts not to try to unionize or something similar. Without theaters and cinemas in which to show their product Hollywood is nothing. They should have fought for a better deal while they still could. The advent of streaming and video rental decades back really hurt that possibility. They don’t hold a monopoly on how people see movies anymore.

 

My daughter has seen the movie already at an early preview and she just loved it. So did her husband and he is not a huge Elvis fan by any stretch of the imagination. He told her he wants to buy the film when it comes out on Blu-ray. He is actually a very good singer himself and once opened for Carrie Underwood in her early days. Here is one of my favorite reviews from a top critic that reports to Rotten Tomatoes, Tim Stegall, with the Austin Chronicle.

From a technical standpoint, the production is dazzling. The use of split screens and carefully controlled color saturation as storytelling elements are fantastic. The hair and costuming is deadly accurate – every era portrayed looks documentary-real. Elvis’ plot is the complicated relationship between narrator Col. Tom Parker (Hanks) and Presley. This was an artist with uncanny instincts, and Parker’s carny-bred con artistry frequently spayed and neutered his exclusive client. Luhrmann's film captures their bizarre dynamic beautifully. It helps having brilliant actors: Parker might be one of Hanks’ rare villains, but he simultaneously humanizes him. (However, his bizarre choice to give Parker a Dutch accent he never had makes you expect him to utter at any moment, “No, Mr. Bond. I want you to die!”) And Butler inhabits the role of Elvis Presley the way Jim Carrey reincarnated Andy Kaufman. It’s astonishing watching the former Nickelodeon star practically slip on Presley’s skin and operate his voice box, doing most of the vocals himself. Most importantly, he reveals the man swiveling those hips. If Butler and Hanks don’t win Oscars next year, the Academy is full of fools, fools, fools.

 

Yeah Disney is no picnic for theatre owners to deal with especially if you're an indie in a small market, they will often pass on Disney titles until week 5. They tend to demand a minimum 4-week engagement and a higher % than most studios early in the run (I heard up to 55-65% depending on the title). The mouse is the big bully in the industry.

 

That would be a cartel.

 

Disney is to theaters what The Beatles are to music licensing. They asked, they got it.

And last year with Get Back...both on the same platform.

 

What a nice, totally appropriate word to describe small businesses sticking up for themselves and looking out for each other’s interests. Absolutely no negative connotation there. Great job.

(If there’s a cartel at all at work in this dynamic, it’s Hollywood, NOT theater owners.)

 

How’s Elvis doing / forecast ?

 

looking at about a $35 million weekend , after today's , estimate of $13 million

 

Huh! It is actually quite accurate.
Here is the definition.

cartel
kär-tĕl′
noun

1. A combination of independent business organizations formed to regulate production, pricing, and marketing of goods by the members.
   

​

1. 
   

 

of course, you were entirely accurate. Sometimes words can take on unfortunate shades through media overexposure.

 

Don’t know where you get that definition but the ones I find online all involve limiting competition or fixing prices to be high which isn’t at all what I’m talking about. Hollywood companies are the ones that rigged the deals so they receive the vast percentage of profits for the first couple weeks, not the other way around.

 

It's actually a big competition between Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick -- both are estimated to make around $31 million. My thought is that while Elvis might be a big interest on this forum (and I'm seeing it tonight), the reality is that average people are not going to be interested in a singer who died almost 45 years ago and whose most successful years were long before that. A nostalgic costume film in the 1950s and 1960s, one that runs 2 hours and 40 minutes... that's a hard sell to Millennials, Gen Y, and Gen Z audiences (all well under 50).

Box Office: ‘Elvis’ Opening To $31M In Fierce Battle With ‘Top Gun 2’ – Deadline

‘Elvis’ Can’t Help Hauling in $30 Million+ Debut

I think Elvis will win that battle, but I don't think it's the massive hit they were hoping for. On the other hand, it only cost $85 million to make (vs. $170M+ for Top Gun: Maverick), so maybe it'll do OK.

(BTW, I laughed out loud at Variety's "Elvis Can't Help Hauling in $30 Million" headline. But I also wondered, "who the hell else is gonna get this pun in 2022?")

 

Who are these mythical "average people" you speak of? Perhaps the generalisation you're searching for is the one where people who work hard and don't get paid much just want a good entertaining night out and value for money. Elvis fits the bill. You sound almost disappointed that it didn't bomb.

 

A movie about a singer who died 30 years earlier and whose heyday was in the mid-70s to mid-80s was a huge hit.

For people of those younger generations, Freddie Mercury isn't any more "current" than Elvis is. Both are guys who died before they were born.

 

So was Julius Ceaser...

The difference is that the younger generations do still listen to Queen and know who Freddie Mercury is.

Elvis the Pelvis, not so much...

 

from Variety - Top Gun keeps on going

Top Gun: Maverick is projected to gross $30 million this weekend. That would be the second-biggest fifth domestic weekend ever for a movie that debuted in wide release, behind only “Avatar,” which grossed $42 million in its fifth weekend.

 

M. Stegall is actually wrong, the exact quote is "No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die!"

 

it will be interesting to see if the numbers come close to Top Gun level.

 

ELVIS $20M Overseas Opening Total / 52 Markets $50.5M Global Total: TOP MARKETS: Australia: $4.7M UK: $4.7M France: $2M Germany: $1M Italy: $915K

Weekend Box Office: ELVIS and TOP GUN: MAVERICK in Dead Heat for #1 Spot w/ $30.5M Each.

 

It's official Tom Cruise has his first $$ Billion $$ grossing movie.

1- Top Gun: Maverick $1,006,423,000
2- Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $947,014,432
3- The Batman $770,345,583
4- Jurassic World Dominion $746,664,000

 

with $520M domestic, and not one single penny from China. Massive achievement & huge profit.

 

I don't know what kind of deal Cruise has on this movie but whatever it is he's going to make a TON of money. As for China, forget it that market will not be happening, if I know them they probably think the unnamed enemy is them.