Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

Not so. The theaters keep half the money, and the studio only gets the other half. And then they spent $100 million+ on advertising. This is a more complicated situation than you think. I think it could very well be that Fox/Disney will really need $900M-$1B to break even on a movie that cost $350M.

Edie Falco is 59 nowadays, and I think she looks her age (not a criticism). I think she's probably had a little work done, and with great lighting and makeup, she can look fine. She's downright dowdy in Avatar 2, almost unrecognizable as the tough Army commander ordering the Pandora human troops around.

 

Oooooh, the most telling lines in the story were these:

However, Adam disappointed at the box office with $391 million globally and earned poor reviews. That wouldn’t necessarily be a problem to launch a sequel if not for several factors. One, the movie was inordinately expensive. Greenlit at $190 million, the movie’s costs ballooned to the $260 million mark, according to sources, especially after a costly 20-day round of reshoots undertaken after a poor test screening. That does not include marketing costs.

That is awful. I'm very curious to see what they reshot and what went wrong.

 

There has been a leak it seems of a DCU new logo, which includes Supes, Batman, WW, Aquaman, Green Lantern and I think the Flash.

No Cyborg, he's gone, most likely he should be where he belongs in the Teen Titans.

Hopefully we get a comic version of Aquaman and not some GOT reject.

The logo is very much like the New 52 if you know the comics, so that's the inspiration it seems.

All cast members to be recast except possibly Peacemaker (as he has not been tarnished by Snyder) and Harley, as Gunn likes her.

THIS IS ALL SPECULATION OF COURSE I'M NOT SAYING THIS WILL 100% HAPPEN, I DON'T WORK FOR WB.

 

Indeed, I was being a bit reductive. On a related note Avatar 2’s worldwide total hit $550 million yesterday.

 

I know you have answered this before
but if I remember right
you explained the (out of North America ) situation
that the Theaters keep more then the 50%, so the studio's receive less

 

Yes, overseas, the studios get less than 50% because sometimes other distributors are involved. So just because a movie "makes" $1 billion dollars doesn't mean the studio gets all of it -- at best, they get half of it. But the theaters also make a lot of money on concessions (drinks, popcorn, food, beer & wine), and that's how they stay in business.

Note also that Fox/Disney paid $350 million for Avatar 2 starting five years ago, and interest on a sum that enormous does add up over time.

I would be very surprised if they don't hit $1 billion worldwide in 2 weeks. But what happens after that... I dunno. There's no way I see it coming close to the $2.9 billion of the first Avatar.

 

I thought the studios got closer to 80-90% of the opening weekend for big movies, I think you even said that previously. Studios don't spend 9 figures in advertising for a single project to give away half the proceeds. Explains why the industry is so obsessed with initial results. After the opening weekend domestically, it's 50%.

50-50 does work for easy head math worldwide plus factoring promo.

 

The dude created the Terminator. He drew every piece of the machine. Going from truck driver to where he is now is incredible. There are some people who have an attitude or reputation, see Tom Cruise. You might not like them, but they deserve respect. Look at your own life and the things you’ve achieved. How do they compare?

 

That's basically the deal.

How movies make money: $100m+ Hollywood blockbusters

 

Lol. What I’ve done with my own life is irrelevant. Everybody has the right to criticize art regardless of personal achievements. You actually invalidate your own opinion about his films because it creates the absurd notion that only somebody in Cameron’s position can judge Cameron, both negatively AND positively.

 

Well he did get sued for stealing the idea from Harlan Ellison.

 

Where’s the prediction 2023 thread ?

 

Sent into the past to kill the prediction 2022 thread.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water earned an estimated $14.3m on Wednesday for a six-day domestic total of $182.9m. Internationally the film brought in $39.5m for an overseas total of $426.8m, and a worldwide total of $609.7m


Split is 30/70 very similar to the original. It should come close to passing Black Panther by Sunday for 5th place, BP has been out 40 days.

 

Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2023

 

Avatar - The Way of Water

Week #1 is in the books

Domestic: $197.68 million - 30%
International: $463.9 million - 70%
Total: $661.4 million

By comparison Top Gun Maverick (using their ratios: 48.3 D/51.7 I) took around 12 days to hit around $665 million w/w.

The weather is not helping the start of week#2 for Avatar, box office will suffer for sure.

 

interesting read https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...197536-8234-11ed-8738-ed7217de2775_story.html

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Declared 'Not Suitable for Chinese Audiences'

 

Whitney
and Babylon
are both bombing

Box Office: ‘Avatar’ Nears $200M US, ‘Babylon’, ‘I Wanna Dance’ Start Previews – Deadline


In retrospect
maybe think
about something
that may have a competing
TV Film version

(Also Aretha , last year)

In my social media feed
why should I leave my home

for something
that is TV for free
(not really , free , but you know how people think)

 

Watch Whitney | Lifetime Lifetime driving a stake into the Theatrical release's heart--airing the film on Dec 26th

this will do nothing
but confuse
people

 

Non story clickbate

 

That is awful. There is nothing even remotely alluding to or involving Asian people in this film. I suspect Fox didn't bribe the right Chinese government official to get it approved.

The bad weather going on in North America is really, really gonna affect the box office for sure. Hey, it's 75°F in LA tomorrow, and we're going to see Babylon! Oh, boy! (Bracing myself for the elephant scene...)

Babylon Is a Defecating Elephant of a Movie (Slate Review)

 

Domestic forecast for the upcoming weekend.

20th Century and Disney’s Avatar 2 stayed No. 1 on Friday with $19.5 million from 4,202 theaters for a domestic total of $217.2 million. The big-budget tentpole is expected to post a Friday-Monday gross of $88 million to $90 million. While a strong number, the James Cameron-directed sequel is falling a bit more than expected in its second weekend as Mother Nature has her way.

DreamWorks Animation and Universal’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, which opened midweek, will have no trouble coming in No. 2 with a projected four-day holiday gross of $17.4 million and six-day opening of $24 million from 4,099 theaters. The family pic had been tracking for a launch in the $30 million to $35 million range.

I Wanna Dance With Somebody grossed an estimated $2 million Friday from 3,625 theaters for a projected four-day gross of $7 million to $8 million (Sony insiders believe that number could climb to $10 million). The Whitney Houston biopic earned an A CinemaScore from audiences after earning glowing reviews.

Darren Aronofsky’s star-packed Babylon is looking like a major disappointment unless it rebounds next week. The movie, which runs north of three hours — similar to Avatar 2 — opened to $1.5 million from 3,343 theaters on Friday for a projected four-day debut of $5 million.

At the specialty box office, The Whale is expanding into a total of 603 cinemas over Christmas. The A24 film is expected to earn $1.4 million for the four-day weekend.

 

Darren Aronofsky?

 

Hollywood Reporter fixed that little blunder, it's Damien Chazelle.