Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2023

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 16, 2022.

  1. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
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    Cocaine Bear beat Antman on Wed. I think Bear might climb in rank and Antman has the possibility of falling out of second.

    Creed III has great reviews and word of mouth. It’s going to have great legs.
     
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  2. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Watched “X.” tI West.
    Seen it last year. Only one in the cinema.
    DVD extra : The Farmers Daughter “ was welcome.
     
  3. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    from Box Office Report:

    Estimated Weekend Box Office Top 7 for Mar. 3 - Mar. 5, 2023
    1. Creed III - $58.66M

    2. Ant-Man and the Wasp - $12.47M
    3. Cocaine Bear - $11.02M
    4. Demon Slayer - $10.12M
    5. Jesus Revolution - $8.65M
    6. Avatar The Way of Water - $3.58M
    7. Operation Fortune - $3.16M
     
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  4. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
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    Creed 3 had an amazing performance. Word of mouth made it open better than the best estimate it had going into the weekend.

    Ant-man 3 managed to stay in second place with a drop of greater than 60 percent (which is worse than any of the predictions it had before the weekend). Ant-man 3 is now predicted to end its domestic run in the low $200 million range (production budget was $200 million).
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2023
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  5. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Senior Member

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    Would be interesting if N.A.T.O. thought that theater owners weren't be well served by, say SXSW, other major film fests, or even the studios, and would be more open to directly booking indy films, or I should say independently produced films. One could cost efficiently and perhaps even more effectively promote films regionally. Since now distributed digitally, studios aren't needed for that part of the process.
    Events

    I recall talking to the regional NATO rep in the mid 80's (so an out of date observation but it seemed significant then, and perhaps still is). Theater Owners were sensitive to the long term strategy of what they called 'building an audience.' Recognizing how trends go in cycles, they thought studios should be offering more films that were, yes, entertaining but also more challenging, and not necessarily tightly locked into genre conventions. Or quadrants. They wanted to make money, but some thought a more sophisticated and open minded audience would be better for everyone in the long run.
     
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  6. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Ant-Man sits at $186.8 million domestic to date + $232.7 Int'l , worldwide total = $419.5 million. Not good and no doubt the leaders at Marvel/Disney are not happy.
     
  7. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    I think this type of strategy in 2023 would be economic disaster for theatre owners, let's take a look at the Oscar nominees for Best Picture - which include the two box office behemoths (Avatar & Top Gun).

    The Big Two grossed a total of $3.775 Billion Worldwide - the (8) other more traditional "Academy" oriented selections grossed $522.875 Million Worldwide. Every year there are hundreds of smaller films released around the world, check your local multiplex as these type of smaller releases do not stick around for long.

    NOMINEES
    ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT: NETFLIX only
    Malte Grunert, Producer

    AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER: $2.282 Billion grossed worldwide to date
    James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers

    THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN: $45.335 Million grossed worldwide
    Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers

    ELVIS: $287.34 Million grossed worldwide
    Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers

    EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE: $104.8 Million grossed worldwide
    Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers

    THE FABELMANS: $35.18 Million grossed worldwide
    Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers

    TÁR: $19.39 Million grossed worldwide
    Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers

    TOP GUN: MAVERICK: $1.493 Billion grossed worldwide
    Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers

    TRIANGLE OF SADNESS: $24.3 Million grossed worldwide
    Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers

    WOMEN TALKING: $6.53 Million grossed worldwide
    Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
     
  8. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Sunday, at my local theaters, there were more showings of Cocaine Bear than Ant-Man. That is not a good sign!
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2023
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  9. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Fine with cocaine, couldn’t bear to see it though.
    :)
    seriously.. bad news ( ….). Covid past three years didn’t help. But Disney is destroying imo Marvel MCU related universe, with their terrible production touch. I’ll stick to cult movies like The Triangle Of Sadness etc in the future. Can’t see any hope for MCU.
     
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  10. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Doh, that is scary.
     
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  11. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I have no schadenfreude about Spielberg's Fabelmans laying an egg at the box office and not getting any award cred from the various societies, but I did disliked the film for a lot of reasons. Just this past weekend, Everything Everywhere won the WGA Award for best screenplay; last weekend, it won the SAG actors' awards and the PGA Best Picture award, and before that, it won the DGA Award for Best Director. It's got to drive Spielberg absolutely batty... plus the fact that Fabelmans cost $40 million but has only made about $35 million worldwide -- and it would need to make at least $80M-$90M just to break even.
     
  12. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Everything Everywhere “?
    Overrated.
    Preferred The Fabelmans..( least second half - high school bit)
     
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  13. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Last film of Ray Liotta’s. Sad exit.
     
  14. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    I was about 75% positive that Ant-Man would build on the box office numbers of the previous two, looks like I'm going to be dead wrong on that one. As for Cocaine Bear, it's grossed $52 million so far, 79% of that # in the Domestic market. Estimated production budget $30-35 million + marketing. Still a ways to go before it turns a profit.
     
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  15. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    That new Jason Statham film with Guy Ritchie looks like it’s gonna bomb, been delayed for two years. Like the film he made with Tom Cruise.
     
  16. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Crashed and burned in the Domestic market $3.16 million for the opening weekend, much better international $30.8 million. Production budget: $50 million.

    52% on RT Critics - 84% fans
     
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  17. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Let's see what happens at 6 days at the Academy Awards. I bet you $1000 cash right now that Everything Everywhere will win more Oscars than The Fabelmans. And I bet the movie will make more money at the box office, too.

    Ant-Man just cleared $419 million worldwide on a budget of $200M, but the problem is the P&A costs, which I bet were at least $50M. My guess is it'll have to clear north of $600M just to break even. Ant-Man and the Wasp made $620M, and the original Ant-Man made $519M. I think their big mistake was the budget increase: at $150M, they might have had a chance.
     
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  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    That's true, but I think it has a good chance of gaining word-of-mouth traction, if it hangs in there long enough.
     
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  19. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. mBen989

    mBen989 Senior Member

    Location:
    Scranton, PA
    I bet it wins Best Screenplay next year.
     
  21. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Any feedback on how 65 is going to fare?
     
  22. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    There are no reviews yet, that should tell you something. The trailers looked godawful.
     
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  23. brownie61

    brownie61 Forum Resident

    I am a huge Adam Driver fan, and even I have no interest in seeing 65.

    The only new film on my radar at the moment is Inside, which I am quite looking forward to.
     
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  24. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    Scream could over-preform this weekend. Lots of buzz for it.

    The few early 65 reviews have seen call it underdeveloped and a bit boring.
     
  25. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Disney chief Bob Iger just had to answer some pointed questions from industry analysts as to whether Marvel is "overextended" in terms of cranking out too many sequels:

    Disney CEO Bob Iger is touting “newness” when it comes to the Marvel Cinematic Universe. The executive appeared at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference and questioned whether or not Marvel needs to continue churning out multiple sequels for individual characters. His comments arrived amid critical and box office disappointment for the most recent MCU tentpole, “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.”

    “Sequels typically worked well for us,” Iger said at the conference. “Do you need a third and a fourth, for instance? Or is it time to turn to other characters?”

    Not only is “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” one of the worst-reviewed Marvel films in history (its 48% on Rotten Tomatoes nearly matches the record-low “Eternals” score of 47%), but the film dropped a massive 69% at the box office in its second weekend, marking the second-biggest drop in MCU history. “Quantumania” currently stands at $420 million worldwide and $189 million domestically. While these grosses are higher than the first two “Ant-Man” movies, they’re also underwhelming considering “Quantumania” kicks off Phase 5 of the MCU and introduces the new Thanos-sized villain of the franchise in Jonathan Majors’ Kang the Conquerer.


    Marvel Movies Need 'Newness,' Says Disney CEO Big Iger - Variety
     
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