Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2023

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 16, 2022.

  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    That's the biggest buncha crap I've ever heard. That's like suing a pizza company for saying, "this is the best pizza in town!" Come on, you know there's stuff in commercials that are gross exaggeration.

    The thing with trailers is sometimes, they're made 3-4 months before the movie actually comes out, and by the time it gets released, the movie has gone through lots and lots of changes, and maybe it gets shortened by 15 minutes... so some of the quick cuts and moments in the trailers are just no longer there. It happens.

    On the other hand, sometimes the studio knows that the film they're trying to advertise is a massive piece of elephant excrement, so they throw everything and the kitchen sink at it to try to make it "seem" like a fun, interesting, exciting film. Many years ago, I worked on the 1994 trailer of The Next Karate Kid (starring a yet-to-be-famous Hillary Swank), and the studio was so freaked out about the lack of action scenes, they threw together a bunch of cut scenes to give the impression that it was an exciting film with lots of cool karate fights. Only... the real movie only has maybe 1.5 such scenes, if that. It's mostly a lot of talking, a lot of philosophy, a lot of long shots of Hillary worrying about her life, and so on. Great trailer, movie was a nuclear bomb. Nothing could save it.
     
  2. cdcollector87

    cdcollector87 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Wisconsin
    It will get overturned on appeal I would think.
     
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  3. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    It's funny but true! For an actor that just about everyone jokes about his acting skills, everything he does makes megabucks for the studios...
     
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  4. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

     
  5. mBen989

    mBen989 Senior Member

    Location:
    Scranton, PA
    Should I mention the book Oppenheimer is based on? It's American Promethus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin.
     
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  6. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I don't think there has been any trial as of yet. The only thing the court has ruled on is that the suit can proceed.

    Understood, but the nature of a trailer is that is advertising for a product. The question that comes into play involves truth in advertising.

    There is difference between the world's greatest pizza and the world's greatest pepperoni pizza.

    That is, when you order online and pay for the world's greatest pepperoni pizza and when you receive your pizza, there is no pepperoni on it.

    You complain and are told that another company built the ordering website a few months ago and since then, we have decided not to include pepperoni as one of our ingredients.

    The issue here appears that the trailer featured an actress that did not appear in the movie. You know how obsessive fans can get!
     
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  7. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Let's see...

    Shazam 2
    The first movie was funny.

    Hunger Games 5
    The previous ones were the movie versions of a series of novels. This prequel shows how it began. You know, just like Star Wars!

    Aquaman 2
    Jason Momoa was funny as Aquaman.

    Dune 2
    Well, not so much as a sequel. Just the 2nd part of a two part movie. Hoping that this ties it all together and makes the first part worth sitting through.

    And...

    Indiana Jones 5
    Ghostbusters 5

    No, PLEASE NO!
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2022
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  8. 64FALCON

    64FALCON Forum Resident

    I'm waiting for AQUAMAN 3: YEAR OF THE SEAWEED. :righton:

    Also looking forward to AQUAMAN 4: THE SEASON OF THE FLOUNDER! :wave:

    → Think about it: If 'Halloween III' can have a 'Season of the Witch' then 'Aquaman IV' can surely have a "Season of the Flounder", right? (Too much iced coffee today . . . the caffeine makes me think of weird sh!t). :laugh:
     
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  9. MichaelH

    MichaelH Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bakersfield
    Indy 5 sounds good, as does A Man Called Otto. And I'm already planning on seeing the sequel to Nicholas Cage's Left Behind movie, so that's at least three movies for me to look forward to. Not bad all things considered, lol.
     
  10. MichaelH

    MichaelH Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bakersfield
    I've seen all the Karate Kid's and my favorite probably is the Hilary Swank one. In second place would be the one with Will Smith's son.
     
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  11. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Oh, I know that Sony was horrified that it was such a bomb. The cinematography was fantastic (by the famous Laszlo Kovacs), but the story and structure were a mess. It has a 7% score on Rotten Tomatoes (!!!), which is haaaaaaarible. I think I watched it 5 or 6 times while working on it, and shook my head sadly most of the time. It cost $12M and made $15M, which is Bad Hollywood Math.
     
  12. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Perhaps they should remove the coffee makers from the studio execs offices?
     
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  13. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I will grant you that $15M at the box office was terrible, but...

    The original 1984 Karate Kid, was made on only a $8M budget and it grossed $130M, with $90M being domestic sales.

    Having a $12M budget a decade later is completely reasonable and very conservative, as far as the budget is concerned. I doubt that you would find many major studio movies being made for less money, back in '94?

    The problem was not the budget, it was the script and premise. Which apparently you realized a bit more than the powers that be!
     
  14. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    The problem was the $15M gross for Next Karate Kid. And trust me, the Sony Pictures execs knew it was a piece of crap. Much conversation about it among the trailer/marketing people.
     
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  15. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Yes, all of the above is true.

    But since the mid 90's, studios have really developed the art of loosing many tens of millions of dollars on bad movies, one after the other...
     
  16. Michael

    Michael I LOVE WIDE S-T-E-R-E-O!

    ...3 I have no interest in...
     
  17. Michael

    Michael I LOVE WIDE S-T-E-R-E-O!

    I wonder how many of the remakes will have rainbows, unicorns and pretty colors?
     
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  18. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    They actually intended to make money. I think over the last 10 years somebody charted every major studio film that was released, and they figured out that about 49% of them lost money, and about 51% of them made money. But the ones that made money put the studio in the black and were very, very profitable. Basically, the hit movies finance the bombs.

    Steven Spielberg's former agent, Guy McElwaine, later ran Columbia, Warner Bros., and MGM at different times in his career. Some years ago (before his death in 2008), McElwaine wrote a book where among other things, he said, "if I had cancelled the films that I went ahead and made, and if I had made all the films that I cancelled, it probably would've come out about the same."

    As the great screenwriter William Goldman famously said: "Nobody knows anything. Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one."
     
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  19. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    M3GAN trailer - out Jan 6.

     
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  20. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

     
  21. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    M3GAN should have a decent run in January. Good early buzz, based on what I’ve heard likely to get a positive to average critic reviews and good social media awareness.

    My early guess is a $75m-$90m domestic gross and a $175m worldwide gross.
     
  22. noname74

    noname74 Allegedly Canadian

    Location:
    .
    I liked it better when it was called Child’s Play.

    #ChuckyForLife
     
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  23. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Odd, "There are no critic reviews yet for M3GAN." on Rotten Tomatoes, with opening in three days?

    That seems optimistic? The buzz has been positive and the clips I have seen look good.

    But I wonder if it rates being a first run theatrical release? It looks more like an original Netflix type of movie?

    I some how don't see it being that strong. This is the slow post holiday season and Avatar WoW is very much still the big gorilla.
     
  24. Johnny66

    Johnny66 Laird of Boleskine

    Location:
    Australia.
    Killer dolls (and teddy bears!) have been around for a loooong time. Check out Magic (1978), The Pit (1981) or Dolls (1987).

    Maybe it'll run as effective counter-programming to the big blue smurf movie?
     
  25. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    Horror has been one of the strong genres during these hard times and M3GAN appeals to younger fans of the genre. While it’s using the same formula of an evil doll, M3GAN doesn’t have the baggage that the recent Child’s Play reboot had. The trailer peaked interested. It’s been screened for critics. I think the pieces are in place for a decent hit.

    And hey, I might as well take a big swing here. No point in making boring predictions to start the new year.
     
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