Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2023

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 16, 2022.

  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    No, the industry estimates are that Avatar: The Way of Water cost between $350 and $460 million dollars:

    [​IMG]

    I think the reason for the spread is you can argue that some of that money was for development in the last 10 years, some was for building the infrastructure they needed to capture the images, plus some of what was shot can be used for the next film, which will bring down the budget of Avatar 3. But by any measure, $350+ million dollars is a lot of money.

    I'm glad it did well because it was a huge gamble by Jim Cameron, and I think six months ago he was very "iffy" on whether or not it would make money. I always thought it would at least break even (which meant it would have to make at least $1 billion), but seeing it actually hit $2 billion is surprising.
     
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  2. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Not really, it does depend very much where you are in the country.

    Looking back at my card charges:

    ********* available after $15.08 purchase at GOVERNORS CROSSING 14 CAR SEVIERVILLE TN US on 12/15 02:48PM CT with your ********* card ending in ****.

    That included a large bucket of popcorn to eat while I was waiting. I inadvertently arrived early. The show was not in 3D and I had to wait for the next theater.

    The price also included sales tax, which is 11% here. That would be roughly $13.50 pre-tax. The popcorn was about $6. So, the movie had to be about 7.50 And that was for the higher priced 3D showing.

    Big cities, big city prices! Some of those higher prices would reflect premium theaters and IMAX showings.

    I probably had a senior discount...
     
  3. harmonica98

    harmonica98 Senior Member

    Location:
    London, UK
    I knew Avatar would do well when I heard people talking about it at the office. Other than television, extremely rare for anything cultural to be discussed there.

    I think it gets to a tipping point when people just want to go to things because everyone else is doing the same. And to be clear I am happy this happens when it comes to cinema! Any film that helps the business is good with me.
     
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  4. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Disney can sometimes demand close to 55-60% of early returns depending on the title. Going by your numbers to date.

    All Releases
    DOMESTIC (29.8%)
    $582,930,353
    INTERNATIONAL (70.2%)
    $1,374,400,000
    WORLDWIDE
    $1,957,330,353

    Domestic: $582,930,353 x 52% = $303.1 million
    China: $214,509,148 x 25% = $53.6 million
    International: $1,159,890,852 x 45% = $521.9 million

    Return from box office to date: $878.6 million! it doesn't matter how much of the production budget they push into A2 they have more than covered those costs including marketing with the theatrical release alone and A2 is well into the black already long before home release (PPV/Digital/Streaming/Blu-4K/Licensing etc...). I would love to see the detailed breakdown of the production/development costs between A2/A3 (filmed together) + part of A4 along with the shared tech and development with Alita Battle Angel. No doubt the accountants/tax lawyers worked very hard behind the scenes.
     
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  5. mBen989

    mBen989 Senior Member

    Location:
    Scranton, PA
    $250 was the just the first number I pulled out of the air.
     
  6. brucewayneofgotham

    brucewayneofgotham Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bunkville
    Well, I feel better in thinking
    I no longer can do basic math
    I emailed the website.
    And received a reply from a real person.(Hello, Rhino....lol)

    And she stated , they nearly use the same formula
    for "tickets sold" for all films.

    And there have been internal
    arguments on how to handle
    Avatar 2.
    Because it really is a huge exception
    to the "formula" they use.

    She stated see saw the tweets too , this weekend.
    But Disney is a big company and until they come clean.
    Everyone's number is a guess.
    She did state after this weekend, she thinks the absolute
    bottom , is that this sold
    as many tickets, as a typical $300 mil grosser.
    The discussion was about Domestic numbers.
    She also stated they are what really matters.
    Most of the time.


    On the International front.
    Like Vidiot has explained numerous times.
    Figuring out, how much money the studio's receive , really is all a guessing game.
    Guessing tickets would be impossible.
    She even used the name "Vidiot" in her reply, so she must read this forum...lol.
     
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  7. brucewayneofgotham

    brucewayneofgotham Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bunkville
    I just quoted you, so you read my above reply,
    You are famous!! ;)
     
  8. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Is this an extended Haiku?
     
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  9. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    So much wrong info in your post.....anyhow. As for how much $ or % of the box office is returned to studios keep in mind that a lot of big theatre chains are public companies and this information can be sourced out in their audited financial statements.

    Rentrak/Comscore
    Rankings

    Worldwide Box Office (Estimates) Weekend Ending January 22, 2023

    Rank/Title/WWeekendTotal$/Int'l/Domestic/W/W Total to date/Int'l $/Domestic $/Studio

    1- Avatar: The Way of Water $75,985,000 $56,300,000 $19,685,000 $2,023,961,353 $1,426,000,000 $597,961,353 DISNEY 53 20
    2- Wandering Earth 2, The * $69,371,200 $69,371,200 $69,376,000 $69,376,000 MULTI 5 WGUI
    3- Full River Red * $58,970,000 $58,970,000 $58,970,000 $58,970,000 MULTICN 1
    4- Puss In Boots: The Last Wish $29,284,000 $17,784,000 $11,500,000 $297,504,470 $171,044,000 $126,460,470 UPI 79 UNI
    5- M3GAN $20,650,000


     
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  10. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Early tracking for Ant-Man

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. brucewayneofgotham

    brucewayneofgotham Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bunkville
    On the International front.
    Like Vidiot has explained numerous times.
    Figuring out, how much money the studio's receive , really is all a guessing game.
    Guessing tickets would be impossible.


    and their is zero information on the number of tickets sold
     
  12. brucewayneofgotham

    brucewayneofgotham Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bunkville
    so as usual
    your reading comprehension
    fails you , again
     
  13. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    understanding you’re
    post , is an
    uphill battle for
    anyone .
     
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  14. brucewayneofgotham

    brucewayneofgotham Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bunkville
    Thank you, I do try ;)
     
  15. brucewayneofgotham

    brucewayneofgotham Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bunkville
    here it is:

    the tickets sold
    reported by
    the numbers
    for Avatar 2
    are impossible
    to be correct

    do the math....it averages to a ticket price of $9.00++
    which is impossible

    so obviously (as one of their writers, agreed) they are just using
    a basic formula
    rather then a "real" actual count

    the link is below
    feel free to do the math

    The Numbers - Movie Market Summary for Year 2023
     
  16. brucewayneofgotham

    brucewayneofgotham Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bunkville
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  17. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    I’m sure that’s true for Top Gun Maverick as well, which did well in the various premium formats. But it’s old news that we’ve never known tickets sold. That’s not an Avatar or Top Gun exclusive issue. That said, it was playing up the street for $10 last week and there’s a couple of $8.75 showing 20 minutes from my house I could go to tonight. Ticket prices vary a lot, so you can’t really estimate the effect of premium formats.

    But that doesn’t really matter as the goal of a film is to make money. And it’s making a lot of that. It’s helped open up China to Disney again.

    Who is “they”?
     
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  18. brucewayneofgotham

    brucewayneofgotham Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bunkville
    Wish I knew?? lol
     
  19. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    The twelve films that have grossed over $600 million Domestic (not adjusted for inflation) since the first Avatar in 2009. The original release of Titanic in 1997 grossed $600.8, total is now $659.4 million. I think that one was the first to crack that level, the next one was Avatar.

    Avatar: $749.7
    The Avengers: $623.3
    Star Wars The Force Awakens: $936.7
    Jurassic World: $652.2
    Star Wars The Last Jedi: $620.2
    Black Panther: $700.0
    Avengers Infinity War: $678.8
    Incredibles 2: $608.6
    Avengers Endgame: $858.3
    Spider-Man No Way Home: $804.8
    Top Gun Maverick: $718.7
    Avatar The Way of Water: $600.0 (still active)
     
  20. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Yeah, "Titanic" was the 1st movie to crack $600 million in the US non-adjusted.

    Heck, it was the first to hit $500 million non-adjusted in the US, too!

    Gotta wonder when we'll get to a $1 billion US-grossing movie - if ever.

    "Force Awakens" came close!
     
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  21. Jord

    Jord Forum Resident

    Location:
    The Netherlands
    The hype for that movie was unreal. I can't see any movie in the near future having that kind of buzz. Infinity War was probably one of the most hyped movies in the past few years and it didn't even come close to the billion.

    Looking at the numbers, the big hitters rely on nostalgia for a big part and with Jurassic Park/World, Star Wars and Marvel all having big releases in the last couple of years it's hard to imagine a brand where nostalgia would be big enough to lift a movie to a billion.
     
  22. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    The number of actual tickets are reported and released to the general public in some countries.

    France #2 International market for Way of Water: translation, 20th most attended movie in history and 969K tickets sold ahead of the original Avatar at this stage of its release. The gross $ in France was $129.8 Million in USD - revenue per ticket around $10.66.

    Enorme : avec 12,172,137 entrées au terme de sa 6ème semaine, #AvatarLaVoiedeLeau est déjà le 20ème plus gros succès de tous les temps en France. Il reste en avance de 969.000 entrées sur #Avatar (2009) au même stade

    South Korea #4 International market for Way of Water: revenue per ticket $10.27 - 9th biggest US Film All-time in South Korea to date.

    Le cap des 10 millions d’entrées a été franchi en Corée du Sud par #AvatarTheWayOfWater. Il y cumule 10,1 millions d’entrées et 103,7M$ de recettes, soit le 9ème meilleur score de tous les temps pour un film US
     
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  23. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I think the biggest issue for a potential $1 billion US movie is the fracturing of the market.

    Streaming is a much bigger thing than it was even 4 years ago when "Endgame" made $858 million.

    But then again, the 2021 Spidey movie cracked $800m - and that was in the market still damaged/affected by COVID.
     
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  24. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Marvel bringing back the All-Star crew for the next round of Avengers movies might have a crack at it, with their current focus on the multiverse/time travel it could happen. Reunite the band for one last battle to save the universe. Highly unlikely but that's one way.
     
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  25. Crack To The Egg

    Crack To The Egg Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    Secret Wars will be the closest chance I think they’ll get because they can bring in any Marvel properties from any timeframe. Should be Marvel’s No Way Home. And yet, I don’t know if even that will get to the numbers we’re talking about.
     
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