Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2016

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 18, 2015.

  1. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    So Forbes magazine has released a list of the Top 10 movies they think have the chances of being the biggest hits of the new year. Here's what they have so far:

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (March)
    Captain America: Civil War (May)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (November)
    Finding Dory (June)
    The Jungle Book (April)
    X-Men: Apocalypse (May)
    Alice Through the Looking Glass (May)
    Independence Day: Resurgence (June)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (December)
    Suicide Squad (August)
    Warcraft (June)
    Doctor Strange (November)
    Pete's Dragon (August)

    The article is at this link:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...-films-that-will-rule-the-box-office-in-2016/

    Notice anything interesting about this list of films? Every single one of them is either a sequel, or a remake, or some kind of spinoff from a pre-existing franchise. The lone exception would be Warcraft, and that's just a friggin' video game turned into a movie. I'm a blow-'em-up-real-good action fan as much as the next guy, but man... it's sad when there's this many comic book movies coming out in the same year.

    I'll go on record right now as predicting that Pete's Dragon ain't gonna make a dime. Even given state-of-the-art effects -- which they can definitely do better today than they could 35 years ago, when the original came out -- the story for this thing was just lame. And even with the Sherman Brothers, the songs weren't that memorable. I don't see this one clicking.

    Are we reaching the point where these comic book movies are out of control and all of them just become lots of noise and explosions at the expense of character, story, and nuance? My observation is that we're certainly getting closer and closer to falling off the cliff.

    I think the most interesting movie (and maybe the biggest gamble) of the bunch is Doctor Strange, which was a weird comic in the 1960s and 1970s, and will be even weirder today. But it boasts Benedict Cumberbatch in the title role, and he could totally nail the character. I generally found the Strange book to have a very odd sort of atmosphere, almost not belonging in the typical Spiderman/Fantastic Four/Avengers universe, but maybe that's something they can use to their advantage.

    I'm very skeptical about Batman vs. Superman, but I also didn't like Man of Steel, which I think was a loud, unpleasant version of the DC character. The comic always had a light-hearted, fun kind of feel to it -- which I think was captured very well by the first Richard Donner film back in 1978 -- but the last few films have kinda left me cold. It'll be very tough if Warner Bros. can't find a way to get their own action franchise up, up and away.

    Fantastic Beasts is a spin-off from Harry Potter, and the one interesting thing I see in the trailer is that we're finally going to catch a glimpse of what American schools of wizardry looked like (albeit back in the 1930s). The only problem I see is that we have a considerably older protagonist than the kids of the Potter films, and that's gonna make it a tough sell. And it's also a book that isn't anything near the stratospheric status of the previous J.K. Rowling best-sellers.

    And Disney hasn't had an animated flop in a long time. I'm skeptical that Finding Dory can do huge numbers, but then, a lot of people didn't expect Finding Nemo would do a billion dollars back in 2003.

    All in all... it's gonna be an interesting year.
     
  2. Deesky

    Deesky Forum Resident

    Not interested in any of those.
     
  3. Sums up my feelings. Doubt there is a single one of them that I will go to a Theater to see.
     
  4. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    Amazing how Universal has been able to keep "Larry Crowne II" under wraps.
     
  5. Scott Wheeler

    Scott Wheeler Forum Resident

    Location:
    ---------------
    Although I already made this prediction I will make it again. "Keanu" in April. This will be a hit and make a lot of money since it was made for 15 million dollars
     
  6. neo123

    neo123 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Northern Kentucky
    The new Star Trek should pull in the crowds. Don't know how much profit, but it should still do okay.
     
  7. Olompali

    Olompali Forum Resident

  8. Squealy

    Squealy Forum Hall Of Fame

    Location:
    Vancouver
    Apart from Star Wars, Captain America and X-Men, this is the surest thing on the list.

    Although the size of the sureness of the Star Wars spinoff is an interesting question. It'll still be an automatic visit to the theatre for most people, especially after the success of Force Awakens, but I wonder how sitting outside the cast and continuity of the main series will affect its level of popularity.

    I don't think the book is really that relevant -- it's just a little pretend textbook of magical creatures she published for charity years ago. The movie is really an original story -- her first screenplay. You could be right about the adult protagonist but then so many adults like Harry Potter (and many Potter loving kids are now adults). There will be a lot of interest I think but the movie has to deliver and as with Star Wars, the magic might not be there without familiar characters and settings.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2015
  9. Olompali

    Olompali Forum Resident

    1st Harry Potter book was published twenty years ago (!) If one was 12 then, well, it's adulthood time and nostalgia could be a huge factor for that generation
     
  10. audiomixer

    audiomixer As Bald As The Beatles

    Boring, Boring, Boring!!!
    Thank god I have a more than decent home theater system so I can enjoy quality & more diverse award-winning original programming on HBO, Showtime, Starz, Cinemax, FX, BBC America, PBS, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Sundance Channel, AMC, IFC, etc. etc. etc.....All in the comfort of my own home! :D
     
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  11. Maggie

    Maggie run james run

    Location:
    Toronto, Canada
    I'm positive you're right about Pete's Dragon. And anyone who thinks Warcraft is going to be a profitable proposition is dumber than I am.

    I also have my doubts about Jungle Book and Fantastic Beasts. I know the initial reports are very positive, but Jungle Book is exactly the kind of picture that hasn't been connecting with audiences lately (extravaganza based on a very, very dated property). Think of Annie or John Carter.

    The others are probably a safe bet to do well. Civil War's performance will depend on how well Batman/Superman connects. They seem to have very similar stories.

    I think Dory is going to make big money. Nemo has only built up more of an audience over the years.

    I don't see any $400 million+ titles here. I think it will be a relatively quiet year at the box office for new titles, like 2014. Of course, Star Wars will make most of its money in 2016.
     
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  12. Bryan

    Bryan Starman Jr.

    Location:
    Berkeley, CA
    Well, there's my initial predictions. It will be fun and interesting to revisit this in a year.
     
  13. Squealy

    Squealy Forum Hall Of Fame

    Location:
    Vancouver
    Yup. And I just saw a trailer for a new Tarzan movie that smelled like a much bigger bomb.

    I dont think BvS will affect that at all. The success of the Avengers series is entrenched at this point.
     
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  14. Scott Wheeler

    Scott Wheeler Forum Resident

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    Do you know how many people play Warcraft?
     
  15. Squealy

    Squealy Forum Hall Of Fame

    Location:
    Vancouver
    Suicide Squad doesn't look like a hit to me, but I don't know anything about the source material. I feel like these more nihilistic comics don't go over that well in movies but there is probably a major exception I'm forgetting about... And DC Comics have a spotty track record at the movies.

    However, people love the Joker and there seemed to be interest in what Jared Leto was going to do with him.

    Not on that list, but Deadpool looks like a dud to me. The character doesn't seem very well known to mainstream audiences, the level of violence and vulgarity seems off-brand for Marvel, and it stars box office Kryptonite Ryan Reynolds. But you can't count Marvel out -- look at Guardians of the Galaxy. (Is it an official Marvel movie though?)
     
  16. Squealy

    Squealy Forum Hall Of Fame

    Location:
    Vancouver
    But there have been how many flops based on popular video games?
     
  17. keefer1970

    keefer1970 Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Jersey
    I haven't set foot in a movie theater since 2007 and nothing on this list is likely to make me do it again any time soon. Even the flicks that do interest me can wait till they hit DVD/BluRay.

    As for predicting hits/bombs, I will refrain from trying to make any predictions because my crystal ball is notoriously inaccurate when it comes to this sort of thing. :D

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (March) - I didn't much care for Man of Steel, but I'm mildly curious to see Ben Affleck as Batman.

    Captain America: Civil War
    (May) - So far "Cap" has been my favorite series in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. I'm looking forward to this one.

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    (November) - never heard of it.

    Finding Dory
    (June) - My kids loved Finding Nemo when they were small but they're no longer in its target age group so I'm unlikely to see this follow up.

    The Jungle Book
    (April) - Wasn't there already a live-action version of this within the last few years, or am I confusing it with something else?

    X-Men: Apocalypse
    (May) - I liked the last one (Days of Future Past) so I'll tune in for this one eventually.

    Alice Through the Looking Glass
    (May) - Mmmm...nah.

    Independence Day: Resurgence
    (June) - see above

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    (December) - My interest level in this will depend on how I feel about The Force Awakens whenever I get to see it.

    Suicide Squad
    (August) - I'm already tired of the "OMG JARED LETO WILL BE THE BEST JOKER EVA" hype on this.

    Warcraft
    (June) - Never played the game, didn't know there was a movie coming, don't really care.

    Doctor Strange
    (November) - The Doc was just about my least favorite Marvel character during my comic book collecting days so I will be in no hurry to see this.

    Pete's Dragon
    (August) - Didn't like the original when I was a kid, no interest in a new version.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2015
  18. lbangs

    lbangs Forum Resident

    Location:
    Right Behind You
    Life of Pi?

    Shalom, y'all!

    L. Bangs
     
  19. Squealy

    Squealy Forum Hall Of Fame

    Location:
    Vancouver
    Absurdly, Warner Brothers also has a Jungle Book movie with an entirely different cast planned for 2017 titled -- roll eyes -- "Jungle Book: Origins."
     
  20. Bryan

    Bryan Starman Jr.

    Location:
    Berkeley, CA
    It was more than a few years ago. Disney did a live-action version in the 90s.
     
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  21. Clipper Sylvania

    Clipper Sylvania Well-Known Member

    I want the new Chris Hemsworth/Charlize Theron effort, The Huntsman: Winter's War, to be successful but I'm not exactly holding out hope. What does a late April release mean these days, anyway?

    The Finest Hours, Chris Pine's US Coast Guard movie looks very interesting; it might do well enough. There might be enough spectacle in that film to carry it beyond a dramatic audience, and I hope it does. I gave up projecting the success of comic book films a while back; Marvel seems to be able to print money regardless of what they do, whereas Warners struggles.
     
  22. Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice is guaranteed to be a financial success, and even though the most recent trailer suggests that Zack Snyder may have recently been the recipient of a humour transplant (likely more the final script being a rewrite by Chris Terrio), I suspect the end result will end up being yet another loud, generally obnoxious and uninspiring piece of entertainment catering to the more mindless audience share than the truly defining, long-awaited meeting of two comic book heroes it may have been under a more sympathetic director. I'd never really thought much about the sheer wealth of superhero movies coming next year until I read that Forbes list, and I seriously have to question whether there's enough demand for a Suicide Squad movie once the initial hype of it featuring a new take on The Joker and a supposedly brief Batman cameo wears off. Marvel will probably do a lot better than DC, even if Doctor Strange is tucked away in November rather than being given a chance in the summer. Also from that list, I don't see Alice Through The Looking Glass or The Jungle Book performing well, while Warcraft and Finding Dory will likely join the Angry Birds film as textbook definitions of the phrase "too little, too late," serving as cautionary tales for future producers looking to cash in on once-lucrative franchises...
     
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  23. Maggie

    Maggie run james run

    Location:
    Toronto, Canada
    I don't know how it'll do, but it's not an "official" Marvel title -- IIRC it's a Fox X-Men spinoff.

    I guess what I mean is that if BvS is massively successful, it might suck up the air for Captain America. Maybe. Ant-Man was not a roaring success, after all (and even Avengers 2 was a slight box office disappointment.)

    I get that, I do, and I'm not even saying this one is necessarily going to be bad (promising director, after all). But tons of people played and loved all the other video game titles that didn't make the transition to the movies. It's going to have to be a near-masterpiece not to be a disappointment IMO. The audience for an online game, even WOW, isn't anywhere near on the order of the audience that a motion picture of this size needs to have to be profitable.

    I honestly did think this one had a shot, and I'm not discounting your view. My gut instinct of "bomb" comes mostly from the trailer TBH.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2015
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  24. Squealy

    Squealy Forum Hall Of Fame

    Location:
    Vancouver
    It's true there's some superhero fatigue setting in, but Civil War follows up both the Avengers and the last very successful Captain America movie so I think it will be fine. I think fatigue is more likely to affect movies of lesser known characters like Doctor Strange, as it (maybe?) did Ant-Man.
     
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  25. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Location:
    Sheboygan, WI
    Aside from the anticipated hits, there's usually surprises. I was completely unaware of Sicario until seeing commercials a week before its opening. Some of the blockbusters might phase each other out.... leaving room for audiences to discover more nuanced, creative and intelligent films. Vidiot has astutely pointed out the studios' gamble on mega-productions (See Warners Brothers in 2015). If I were on the Board of a Corporation that owned a studio, I'd look long and hard at this: http://mentalfloss.com/article/68552/20-most-profitable-movies-all-time-based-return-investment Granted it doesn't account for, say, the marketing budget of the 15 Mil Kings speech. Still, there's a comfortable margin of profit there.

    I also think lots (most?) of Marketing $ is wasted. What 10 year old needs to be reminded of the Force Awakened by stupid art on their Burger King soda cup?
     
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