Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2017

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 3, 2016.

  1. Jim B.

    Jim B. Forum Resident

    Location:
    UK
    I think lists like that are a complete and utter waste of time. Imagine someone putting a list together of the worst albums of the year. They wouldn't, as it would be ludicrous. But somehow its acceptable for films.

    If someone does a list of the films that disappointed them the most which they were looking forward to most then that's valid.

    Anyway, rant over, they just annoy me and I think are cheap click bate.
     
  2. shokhead

    shokhead Forum Resident

    Location:
    SoCa
    Of course they are cheap click bate. Most stuff online is now.
     
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  3. MLutthans

    MLutthans That's my spaghetti, Chewbacca! Staff

    Location:
    Marysville, WA
    Now that 2018 is here: How'd the forum do in predicting the hit/bomb status of 2017 films?
     
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  4. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    What I said in early December 2016: "As to small indies: one of the films I look forward to seeing the most is La La Land, which is discussed in another thread. That's gotten rave reviews and won several festival awards, and I hope it lives up to the hype. Once in awhile, there's a small indie that just blows past everything and far exceeds expectations, like The Artist."
    :cool:
     
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  5. Deesky

    Deesky Forum Resident

    One possible explanation is that films usually drop in takings each week after the opening, usually by significant percentage points. But this film not only didn't dip, it increased over it's opening week's take, so if you compare the expected drop-off with an actual increase, then there's your 'jump'.
     
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  6. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I get that it had a "jump" - but it was a small one, not 73%.

    If you want to claim the movie jumped 73% because it didn't drop, go for it, but that seems like shaky ground... :shrug:
     
  7. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Good explanation! I'm too damned lazy to do the math, but a jump of $800,000 for a movie that made $14,400,000 is probably about 7.3%!
     
  8. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    If you look at it week-to-week, Greatest Showman made a big jump on its second week:
    [​IMG]
    The Greatest Showman (2017) - Weekly Box Office Results - Box Office Mojo

    I think the movie will ultimately not be successful, but it's not a massive bomb, either. Still, the chances of it hitting $200M -- which is pretty much what this $84M budget film would have to make to break even -- are distant. If it could do La La Land business ($446 million), they'd be doing great.
     
  9. mhvbear

    mhvbear Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Rochelle, NY
    Remember that "The Greatest Showman" had a Wednesday opening so the $4,598,731 was for 2 days only
     
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  10. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Not a good comparison - "Showman" opened on 12/20, so that first "week" only includes 2 days.

    And 2 non-holiday weekdays at that: a Wednesday and and Thursday...
     
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  11. The Panda

    The Panda Forum Mutant

    Location:
    Marple, PA, USA
    Wife saw it over the weekend (a friend wanted to go so bad she pleaded), she considered it rentable with one great scene that had to enjoyed on a screen.
    She wasn't happy that it played fast and loose with the facts, but Wolverine really carried the movie, what a hoofer.
     
  12. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Take it up with Box Office Mojo -- it's not my chart. The movie also went way up on the second weekend, comparing just 3 days:

    The Greatest Showman (2017) - Weekend Box Office Results - Box Office Mojo
     
  13. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I know it's not your chart, but you presented the information in a way to connote that the movie had enjoyed a huge week-to-week jump without an indication that the 1st "week" was only a couple of days...
     
  14. noname74

    noname74 We The North.

    Location:
    Canada
    This discussion in moving pictures (I will let you dear reader, decide who is who):

    [​IMG]

    :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2018
  15. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Did you see my comment that if you just compare the weekends, the results are pretty much the same? I don't know if the movie is good or bad (having not yet seen it), and I don't have a horse in this race. I'm just noting what the headlines say. It's fair to say the critic's reviews have been mixed-to-negative. I'd like to see the movie succeed because it's an interesting gamble, plus it's different from anything else that's been done in some time. But my life doesn't change if it's a bomb or a massive hit.
     
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  16. Jrr

    Jrr Forum Resident

    My daughter just went with her friend to see it a second time. Her friend has already seen it too! I was a bit surprised. Will b e interesting to see if word of mouth saves it.
     
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  17. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I'll say this: Hugh Jackman damn near killed himself to get The Greatest Showman made. He's said several times in interviews that this was the most difficult film he's ever been in, because of having to sing AND dance AND co-produce the film. Tough film to pull off.
     
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  18. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    I think I'm taller than Vidiot, so I guess I'm Napoleon! :D
     
  19. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I'm undoubtedly shorter, but bear in mind I fight dirty.
     
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  20. Well...Kip did plan on becoming a cage fighter, so your dirty fighting is in character :D
     
  21. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    I enjoyed this for what it was—a good B-grade horror movie in a historical setting (California in the 1950s). In fact, I'm amazed this movie had a production budget of only $15 million. I would have guessed about double that....And talk about a return on the investment!

    Annabelle: Creation
    Domestic Total Gross: $102,092,201
    Distributor: Warner Bros. (New Line) Release Date: August 11, 2017
    Genre: Horror Runtime: 1 hrs. 49 min.
    MPAA Rating: R Production Budget: $15 million
    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $102,092,201 33.3%
    + Foreign: $204,423,683 66.7%
    = Worldwide: $306,515,884
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2018
  22. Jim B.

    Jim B. Forum Resident

    Location:
    UK
    They are like the Blumhouse films - cost £5 to £10 million but takes £100 million at the box office, which doesn't sound a lot but in terms of a % profit it is better than the Marvel and Star Wars films. If you combine Split and Get Out then they cost together £13.5 million but took over £500 million, which is crazy.
     
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  23. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    On this subject, we agree! :D
     
  24. Luke The Drifter

    Luke The Drifter Forum Resident

    Location:
    United States
    We loved it! Part of the problem, was it seemed to be in few theaters. Maybe they are eyeing the after theater market.
     
    benjaminhuf likes this.
  25. benjaminhuf

    benjaminhuf Forum Resident

    Along with almost everyone else, I knew this one would go over a billion, but I didn't think it would happen this quickly. And it hasn't even opened in China yet, which should add another c. $1oom.

    Seems like The Last Jedi will eventually make it to c. $1.6 billion.

    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    Domestic Total as of Jan. 3, 2018:$544,613,735
    Distributor: Buena Vista Release Date: December 15, 2017
    Genre: Sci-Fi Fantasy Runtime: 2 hrs. 31 min.
    MPAA Rating: PG-13 Production Budget: N/ATotal Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic: $544,613,735 49.1%
    + Foreign: $563,800,000 50.9%
    = Worldwide: $1,108,413,735
     

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