Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2018

Can Shazam be the big hit DC has been dreaming of since Man of Steel?

 

Well he is trying to carry it into the 21st century. I just think his tights are tripping him up.

 

No wonder I was confused by his reply lol. Thanks.

 

Err, wasn't "Wonder Woman" the big hit they'd dreamed of since "MoS"?

 

Wonder Woman was their last hit.

 

Yes, however, WW was a fluke for DC/Warner. They didn't believe in the chatecter enough to really care (IMO.) Thus allowing greater creative atonomy to the director. I don't believe they had expectations beyond modest boxoffice results.

 

DC has done quite well at the box office. It's just that they're always compared to the more successful Marvel.

 

DC need a decent Superman movie. The last decent one was Superman II back in 1980.

 

Justice League barely breaking even does not meet my definition of "well".

EDIT: Wait, Time Warner posted a profit in the fourth quarter last year.

 

It made $658 million, so it did better than breaking even (don't believe Hollwood accounting!).

I agree, though, it must have been a disappointment to Time Warner.

 

Oops, wrong video. Robin Hood of course. Although Errol Flynn as Freddie Mercury would still be preferable.

 

Industry estimates were in the $50-$100 million loss range. Also $106 million of the worldwide gross of $658 was in China where a studios cut of the box office is considerably lower than everywhere else.

 

When all is said and done (home video sales, streaming, etc.) Justice League is almost certain to have turned a profit, albeit a meager one. However, that's a very small return on a very large investment.

And if it hadn't been for Wonder Woman's expanded presence in the film, it probably wouldn't have even done the somewhat mediocre business it managed at the box office.

 

"Man of Steel": $668m worldwide ($225m budget)
"BvS": $873m WW ($250m budget)
"Suicide Squad": $746m WW ($175m budget)
"Wonder Woman": $821m WW ($149m budget)
"JL": $657m WW (??? budget)

Even "MoS" managed to at least break even. "JL" is questionable since I don't know the budget, but the others easily turned profits.

2 factors create the perception DC movies bomb:

1) fans tend to be down on these movies
2) Marvel movies often do better

Objectively, though, most of these movies have done pretty well...

 

On the other hand: I've worked on movies that were about a specific moment in history, and they really screwed it up. This happens with background songs, advertisements, all kinds of stuff. It's very, very hard to avoid anachronisms, and that snaps me right out of the movie when that happens. I think there's a balance you can make between getting it absolutely perfect vs. getting it close enough for rock & roll.

 

No, it's not that kind of movie. Shazam is lighter fare aimed at a younger crowd than the usual summer blockbusters. That doesn't make it impossible to become a break-out hit, but Shazam isn't slotted by the studio to be a huge moneymaker. They just hope it rebuilds some of the fans' goodwill after the Justice League disaster.

 

I don't know if Peter Weir planned on doing more films in a series (he's never done a sequel to any of his films) but he certainly could have been setting it up as a franchise and the ending certainly felt like that. I'm sure that Russell Crowe would have been good for it as he, after all, is one of the A list actors that never went for a "franchise" of some sort. The film didn't do as well as hoped.

 

And speaking of bombs, it looks like the new Andy Serkis film Mowgli is going to bypass theaters and go straight to Netflix:

Netflix Acquires Andy Serkis-Directed ‘Mowgli’ From Warner Bros & Plans 2019 Global Streaming Release

No budget is available, but I'd be extremely surprised if it cost less than $100M. My guess is that Warner Bros. tested the film and decided it wouldn't be worth the expense of a massive theatrical release, which is what it would take to make this a commercial success. I think they gave up long ago of equalling Disney's Jungle Book, which made almost a billion dollars and got stellar reviews.

That's gotta be rough to basically release Mowgli as a very high-end TV movie. There will be a small 3D release to theaters, but beyond that, nope.

 

That only adds to the reputation of Netflix as a dumping ground for films with a tenuous theatrical outlook.

 

A dumping ground or a lifeline for lower budget, non-superhero movies that the studios no longer want to make?

 

C. All of the above

 

How much did Netflix shell out for the rights? Last I heard Mowgli cost close to 130 million dollars. It was destined to bomb since Jungle Book beat them to the punch but I don't know how much they recouped from the Netflix purchase

 

No idea -- not in the story.

 

If you were an Orca, would you take directions from Aquaman? Or, say, a bayleen whale? "Sorry dude, no time to attack that submarine. I'm looking for some phytoplankton."

 

New trailer for another Marvel vehicle - VENOM. On the surface it looks like another boilerplate action movie without the humour of say Deadpool.