They finally get to relax a little, post production is now done. Jon Landau, Congratulations to the entire Avatar: The Way of Water family. Yesterday we completed our final mix and picture mastering and I snapped this picture of our post finishing team. I am thankful to every one of you for your contributions to the film. 11:31 AM · Nov 24, 202
This post will be saved for posterity. The first weekend estimate based on pre-sales is $150-175 million for domestic which accounts for maybe 30% of Avatar's worldwide box office. Based on this alone it's already tracking to go well above $1B in short order + whatever they get from China. Let's revisit on Jan 1.
Based on social media reaction, this could make surprising numbers. Not 2 billion numbers, but surprising ones
Ha ha!... Yes, he looks like how I feel. Actually, the photograph was snapped right after James Cameron had quietly taken him aside and softly whispered into his ear ''Listen, Avatar 3 is just about to begin production, it'll only take 12 years to complete, are you interested in working on it with me?''....
I still will throw out the $1.2B to 1.4B as a reasonable expectation. Noting that I use the terms reasonable and expectation. Based on your production cost per-movie numbers, I don't see anything wrong with these realistic numbers. Plenty of profit here. Still, I am not getting statements like WoW having to be the 4th highest movie gross in history just to break even and similar statements? If they spent $250M plus another $100M on promotion, that would make $350M in total production outlay. With a 3x formula, that would indicate a profit at just over $1B. I think it would easily do that. At $1.4B, that would be 4x the production and promotion costs (based on your guesstimates). Nothing wrong with this. Taking in to consideration the time that has elapsed since the original. I think that a major factor in its favor will be the lack of other quality movies for competition. These past few months have been horrible! The upcoming months aren't any better. I like Avatar and hope that WaW well exceeds my guesstimations!
Yeah, I totally agree. There were naysayers in the 1990s and the 2000s and now the 2020s who were convinced that Jim Cameron would eventually make a big movie bomb, but I don't think this one will be it. I'd bet anybody $1000 that Avatar: The Way of Water will go over $1 billion worldwide in the next 120 days, easily. The bet I won't take is whether it'll hit $2 billion. Yeah, I think those are safe numbers. We're planning to see it in Imax in the first week unless I get completely slammed with work.
Short interview with Zoe Saldana on GMA this morning including a new clip of the movie, Sam Worthington is tomorrow. Zoe Saldana talks new film, ‘Avatar: The Way of the Water’
Terrific interview with Mr. Cameron in the new Hollywood Reporter: James Cameron Interview: ‘Avatar: The Way of Water,’ Franchise Future – The Hollywood Reporter He’s also got plans — should the world demand them — for Avatar 6 and 7. “I’d be 89 by then,” Cameron says. “Obviously, I’m not going to be able to make Avatar movies indefinitely, the amount of energy required.”
And another fantastic interview with Cameron in GQ: The Return of James Cameron, Box Office King This is by far the most in-depth interview I've read about him in ten years. Cameron has quite a remarkable story to tell... but note he steadfastly refuses to say that Avatar: The Way of Water is an *animated* film -- which to me is what it is, albeit photorealistic, motion-captured, computer-rotoscoped (with a bit of AI).
Bomb? I highly doubt that. Maybe not $2 billion, because the movie theater business has fundamentally shifted, but i would be surprised if it didn’t still join the $1 billion club.
...different. I thought it looked like crap. Am I the only one? - Stuff in the foreground out of focus, only the middle of the shot focused, stuff in the back out of focus. Not natural at all. As opposed to U2 3D which pretty much you could see individuals in the stadium.
$1 billion would be a bomb for this film, Cameron stated if this film doesn't end up in the Top 4 of all-time, it will be a major disappointment
If that has to be the case, I feel that WoW is in for a terrible disappointment! Is it expensive? Yes it is, but not unrealistically so. Even though this has been said, I think it will not prove to be the case. Anything over $1.1B should be profitable. $1.4B+ will be excellent news.
Looking at the trailer, the film looks dreadful! Those horrible Avatar beings again and all the gamey action and effects. Probably worse than the first movie (that I called Pocahontas meets My Little Poney).
Well, that is not what you originally said. Context is important, and the commercial cinema business is very different than it was back in 2009 - to fail to recognize that is to miss the proverbial 'forest for the trees'. My 'guess' is $1.8 B globally. Mostly moot though, as we will find out soon enough. I thought the trailer looked fantastic, and I will venture out to the cinema for this.
