Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2014

It's a new film audience. If (for example) the first Harry Potter film had failed like Golden Compass did, they wouldn't have made another 7 films. It's a crapshoot and a gamble no matter what.

I dunno. Name recognition didn't help the 1998 Roland Emmerich version of Godzilla.

 

Godzilla to folks under 50 means "old film" in Japanese. That is not the kind of name recognition anyone wants.

It will tank.

 

How long has Robocop been on hold now? Never a good sign when its release is shelved.

I think they would have been better to have done a new Robocop set say 15 years after the first film. The program got dropped but it gets revived for a new threat with a whole new model but still harking back to the original slightly clunky design just a little more fluid.

In the new movie it looks like they start off with a modified sleeker original design that looks pretty good but it seems they then 'update' him to a shiny robo-wetsuit.

I guess we'll see.

 

The only problem I see with Robocop is they made it PG-13 which kinda misses the whole point of Robocop.

 

Well yes you win there.

In trying to open it up to as many eyes as possible you toss out the very people the film should actually be aimed at. Genius.

 

The moody blues inspired x- men title looks to be 2014 biggest hit.

 

It's not like Robocop was a compelling character. They tried but no one cared about the sequels, the cartoon, or the toys. People loved the movie for the satire and over the top violence. None of that will be in the sequel, in fact I almost suspect they may try to somehow make the total opposite statement with this new film.

 

Satire (especially political) will slowly be withdrawn as an art-form in the coming years.

But enough of that.....

 

Interesting list. As you said, I think the new "X-Men" will be a great hit, probably one of the Top 10 in 2014 and thought the first Captain America was terrific, probably the most accomplished of the new Marvel flicks. Btw, IIRC, Johnston didn't work on the sequel.

Back to the list, I think "Maleficent" will do OK if not great business. How long since the last film starring Angelina? (OK, I'll pretend "The Tourist" never existed). And, imho, telling the sleeping beauty story from the villain perspective actually sounds like a good idea.

"Interstellar": I will be very surprised if a Nolan flick bombs. This should be in the same league of "Inception" but imho DiCaprio fans helped it making it massive. Who are the leads on "Interstellar"?

"Edge of Tomorrow"..how much did they spend on it? hmmm Tom Cruise+science fiction = probably will make the same amount of money "Oblivion" did, not a super hit but not a massive flop either.

I enjoyed "Cloud Atlas", so here hoping the Wachowski Bros have a hit although I'm not that optimistic on this one.

I'm actually curious about "Pompeii" and think this will be a decent hit in Europe, only. I know I'll be seeing it. Heck, Emily Browning, Paz Vega and Carrie-Anne Moss in the same film? Sold!

 

Will be interesting to see what happens to Jack Ryan. Godzilla could be fun or a complete waste of time, maybe both.

 

I think the fact so many people thought the 1998 flick was a bad movie was its biggest problem. If the movie had been better received, I think it would've been a big hit, but negative word of mouth hurt it.

Even then, it wasn't a bomb - worldwide, it made almost three times its budget...

 

Hmmmmm....seems to have done just fine looking at these numbers.

Godzilla (1998)

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $136,314,294 36.0%
+ Foreign: $242,700,000 64.0%
= Worldwide: $379,014,294

 

Godzilla cost $130,000,000, so I'd say if it made $379M worldwide, then it made a profit. But it was still considered a huge disappointment compared to (say) Independence Day, their previous film, which took in $811M worldwide. I think they were really stung by the very hostile reviews on the film:

In a 2012 interview with Entertainment Weekly, co-writer and producer Dean Devlin admitted to "screwing up" his version of Godzilla. He commented, "I know I screwed up my Godzilla. I'd be very happy if they pull it off and do a great one. I always wish I had another shot at it. But, listen, Godzilla is something that I grew up loving. We worked hard to go make one. We kind of blew it. I think everyone gets one." In an interview with Bloody Disgusting, Devlin blamed the script he and director Emmerich co-wrote, stating, "I think the problem with that movie was the script I wrote. I think Roland did an amazing job directing it, I think the actors are great, I think when people look back now on the Blu-ray and see the visual effects, it's a lot better than what people said at the time. The problem was the script! I made some big errors in that script. I wish I hadn't, I wish I had a chance to fix it."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godzilla_(1998_film)

One reason for the perception of the film's failure is that Sony Pictures spent over $150M promoting the film and doing elaborate tie-ins with a lot of commercial sponsors. My memory is that they had to refund some of the investors because the movie only made about $130M in the United States, and a lot of the toys and burger tie-ins kind of flopped.

 

It looks somewhat corny and silly, but I'm kind of interested in Akiva Goldsman's "passion project" Winter's Tale, based on a novel by Mark Helprin. I read the novel when it came out (30 years ago, yikes) and I vaguely remember liking it. AG's apparently wanted to make this film for years, and everyone accepted cuts and adjusted the budget so that it could be made for a relatively modest c. $46 million. Stars Jessica Brown Findlay from Downton Abbey, as well as Colin Farrell, Russel Crowe, and Jennifer Connelly. My guess is that it will break even, but it's very hard to tell. I often like adaptations of novels, because they usually escape the cgi video game-like segments that are the plague of so many recent movies. The site has a trailer:

http://www.winterstalemovie.com/

 

Wow, I read it decades ago, too. I also remember liking it, although it was such an expressionistic novel I can barely remember what the story was about. I remember it was a big, fantasy love poem to turn of the (last) century NYC. I also remember is the last chapter was like a magical flight through time and space. Seems like this will be a little hard to capture on the screen. I can't believe they made a movie of it. But if you gave a star a copy of the book, they'd surely fall in love with it.

 

Does MekkaGodzilla mean "consistently grouchy film snob"?

It's not going to tank, it's also not going to be a huge blockbuster, I predict a moderate success.

 

I don't think he made that many blunders. He wrote exactly the kind of script everyone was writing at that time and the kind of crap Roland Emmerich always films!

 

…and Roland Emmerich is THE WORST DIRECTOR ON THE PLANET…even worse than his understudy Michael Bay (who is also awful to the nth degree).

 

The dumbest move those involved with "Godzilla" made was to overhype it up the wazoo. Some hype would be fine, but they went into overdrive with that movie, and they also set themselves up for failure.

They actually claimed that they thought "Godzilla" would outgross "Titanic", which was insane - and left them looking like a flop if it didn't. "Godzilla" could've made $400 million in the US - an insane number in 1998 - and STILL looked like a disappointment because that would've only been 2/3rds what "Titanic" earned.

It would've been fine to heavily promote the movie, but why compare it to the biggest hit in a generation?

 

Ehh - Emmerich isn't great, but I think he can make entertaining movies. I just go into Bay or Emmerich movies with the expectation of an idiotic thrill ride and they sometimes satisfy...

 

I like thrill rides as much as the next guy, but they don't have to be as utterly brain-dead as the crap these two directors shove down our throats. At this point in time someone would have to pay me to watch a film from either one of these hacks.

 

I read that "article" and it just sounds like a bunch of cynical snobs sitting around poo-pooing upcoming films based on almost zero evidence. In other words, sounds JUST like this forum!!!!

 

I don't know but whenever it is on TV (which is really often) someone here watches it. I'll even watch for a few minutes. It is kind of clunky in spots but interesting enough.

 

In the interest of market research, this morning I asked my 25-year-old action-film-loving co-worker if he was going to go see Godzilla. His response: "Oh yeah, the preview looks really cool." I predict a hit.

I honestly had no idea there was a 1998 remake of Godzilla, to be honest.

 

No...but clearly Detuned does...