Predicting the Movie Hits and Bombs of 2019

If ever there was a guy in Hollywood who made up his own rules, it's Quentin Tarantino.

 

I don’t think that he will end up directing his Trek film although it certainly would be a worthwhile reinvention of the franchise and give it new life after the clumsy third film in the Pine-Quinto-Urban films.

 

We saw the trailer for this before Midsommar. Dead silence in the theater. It looks completely unappealing.

 

I think Trek belongs on TV. There really is no need for a film series at this point. It made sense post-Enterprise/pre-Discovery, but not now.

 

Oh, I disagree with that. I think the history of cinematic Trek has mostly been all-downhill since TWoK, but that doesn't mean Trek can't work in the cinemas - I just think it hasn't been treated properly. The reboot movies weren't as awful as some make them out to be - they seemed to get the casting alright - but it's clear JJ didn't have the kind of respect and understanding for the source material that Tarantino does (after all, Trek hails from his favorite era, the '60s - he gets it).

I think if you give the franchise over to somebody who understands what makes Trek tick at a fundamental level and understands the zeitgeist of the '60s from which it sprang, I think you could crank out one hell of a Trek movie. The problem is, I think a quality film like that is capped at around $250 million global box office, because the morons packing the multiplexes are looking for a roller coaster ride, not a film. And a good Trek film isn't going to be a roller coaster ride - Trek may not be Shakespeare, but it isn't dumb enough to survive that treatment, either.

 

how did Alita do? saw it loved it! so it was a success for me...

 

I didn’t mind the reboot movies and enjoyed parts of each of them. I don’t want to see another reboot of the classic cast with new actors. Maybe a movie set in the Trek universe with all-new characters could work, but I just don’t see it making much money when we already get that on TV with Discovery and hopefully Picard.

 

I heard it wasn’t bad, but with so much coming out it was moved to our “watch at home” list. I think a lot of these movies bomb because there are just too many choices.

 

Tarantino pauses, and considers his words. "I've just been doing it for a long time, and I believe that there's an end," he says. "There should be an end. It's not like I should just keep working until I can't work anymore or until I'm not that good any more," he adds. "I like the idea of doing 10 strong ones and dropping the mic and saying, OK, match that ****."

 

There should have been drive-in trailers back in the 50s and 60s that were like: ‘The 589th Film By Roger Corman.’

Or perhaps, ‘The 9th Film this Week by Roger Corman.’

 

At the Box Office? $404.9 million worldwide. It will need to do very well in the PPV, Streaming, 4K, Blu/DVD before they consider a sequel.

 

I poked around the IMDB listing for "My Best Friend's Birthday" - QT's feature credit pre-1992 - and it's unclear if he actually finished the movie.

Some notes say it was completed but most of the footage got burned up in a fire, whereas some notes say it never got finished.

Whatever the case, I wouldn't count it as part of his formal filmography because it never got any kind of release.

Based on what I read, it sounds like something he shot on weekends - more like a student film.

Given that it may have never been completed - much less exhibited - and only bits/pieces remain, I think it's fair to say it doesn't count!

 

Dude can't invent his own math!

I'm guessing he counts "Kill Bill" as one movie. That's the only logical way to call "Hollywood" QT Flick #9...

 

I think the only way an "Alita" sequel materializes is if Cameron and others involved really, really, really push it.

I'm not so sure the home video market can push sequels like it did 20 years ago - at least not for a project on this one's scale.

Movies that were box office mediocrities but got sequels due to video reception were always pretty rare - not counting horror sequels, that is. Horror movies can bring in $25 million and still spawn sequels because they're so cheap to make.

The original "Austin Powers" got a fairly lackluster response in theaters 22 years ago, but it found a serious audience on home video.

The original "Matrix" got a boost from home video, but it was a major hit in theaters: $463 million worldwide on a $63m budget!

I just can't imagine that "Alita" is going to find such a welcoming response on home video that Fox will greenlight a sequel - not unless Cameron and others push it hard and they go with a lower budget.

I don't see Fox throwing another $170 million at a sequel for a movie that got such a blah response theatrically, and I find it really tough to imagine home video is gonna change that...

 

One movie with similar numbers $370 million w/w and a $178 million production budget that is getting a sequel is Edge of Tomorrow (Tom Cruise, Emily Blunt), this movie found life in the home market so it is possible.

 

I have seen the trailer three times now and there was no reaction by the crowd. The movie is trying way too hard. Sex swing?

 

THANKS...

 

Check it out ...it was excellent.

 

Try hard is a good way of putting the whole experience. A tough one to suspend disbelief.

There is a part in the beginning, where the sound of what’s happening mixed with the score, is very unnerving. But it all kinda drops off after that...

 

My guess is that there's an "Edge" sequel because Cruise wants one and the studio's placating him.

I'm also guessing it'll have a considerably smaller budget.

Anyway, you're right that it's possible - I didn't mean to claim that sequels to box office disappointments don't exist - but they're pretty infrequent.

I still doubt there'll be a second "Alita" movie - and if there is, I'm betting it costs like half as much as the first one.

For fans of "Alita", I hope I'm wrong!

 

Gonna be interesting to see how "Good Boys" does. Your audiences have been unmoved, while "my" audiences have laughed!

 

I think the issue is, the core concept of Star Trek is supposed to be "spaceship explores a new world every week." But at a movie scale it gets distorted into "spaceship saves the universe every two or three years." It's not really the same thing.

 

Avengers: Endgame close to surpass Avatar


All Time Worldwide Box Office Grosses

 

Three more 2019 movies headed towards the $1 B club. Aladdin, Spider-Man and Toy Story 4.

 

Yes, it was and 94% of the people who saw the movie thought it was also, based on the RT feedback.

Let's see what happens.

Cameron already knew that he was spending too much money in Alita. It is my belief, that he did, so he could use Alita to further technology that he could then use in the Avatar sequels.

It took Lucas time and money to develop the effects techniques that he used in Star Wars. If two years later, he made a sequel using these same developed effects techniques, it could be done for less money.

I see a sequel to Alita being done, with the same effects and performance capture technology. If they did the sequel this way, it could be done on a production budget of $125M.