Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2020

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Dec 4, 2019.

  1. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    2019 had 9 movies cross the $1 Billion mark (a new record) I would bet a nice sum that 2020 will be lucky to hit half that number. Regarding Pixar they have two movies coming out this year, I'm surprised they didn't list "Soul" in any category.
    SandAndGlass likes this.
  2. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    I feel Tenet, will bomb, based on what I read about, it's over complicated..
    Too many twists and turns. like mice in a maze with no exit.
  3. PhilBorder

    PhilBorder Forum Resident

    Sheboygan, WI
    Wasn't GZ vs Kong's original release Nov of 19? Perhaps they are reshooting the reshoots of the reshooting.
  4. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Don't know much about any of these movies, but here are some comments I would make.

    The hits:
    Black Widow

    The medium-sized moneymakers:
    Top Gun: Maverick

    (Though I do think it will be a big moneymaker)

    Question Marks:
    Ghostbusters: Afterlife - (A big question mark) I think that being a summer kids matinee type movie, may be its only salvation.
    Dune - (A big question mark)
    West Side Story - (I think, more like a possible bomb)

    Possible Bombs:
    Dolittle - (definitely)
    Godzilla vs. Kong - (no, I think it will do OK, not great, but OK)

    And I will add my prediction to the list.


    I think that, I Still Believe, will do well. Following in the footsteps of last year's, Five Feet Apart, which ended up making 91.5M on a 7M budget.


    I still Believe is based on a true story and co-stars Britt Robertson (whom some will recognise from Tomorrowland) and was produced on a budget of 8.5M.


    I Still Believe, reunites 2017's A Dog's Purpose's, K.J. Apa and Britt Robinson (who are rumored to be dating in real life).


    I Still Believe, the real-life story of Christian music star Jeremy Camp.
  5. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
    I really look forward to it -- Christopher Nolan never takes the easy way.
    jlocke08 likes this.
  6. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    I don't think so. I think it was supposed to come out March 2020 and has been moved to November.

    Dunno if that's to give the filmmakers extra time or to allow for it to get more space away from the less than successful "King of the Monsters"!
  7. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    For me, Nolan is the directorial equivalent of a band whose albums I buy without hearing anything first.

    I'll see anything Nolan does first day without foreknowledge of story, characters, and so on.

    I think Fincher is the only other current director I view that way - maybe Cameron, too, but he makes so few movies that it's not an issue.

    Used to feel that way about some others - like Tim Burton - but those directors have made too many duds for me to be "all-in" with them anymore...
  8. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits and Abbie: Best Dogs Ever

    Alexandria VA
    After 2 weekends, "Grudge" is at $29m WW, so if it did cost only $10m, it'll turn a minor profit.

    Horror films almost always make money since they're so cheap to shoot!
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  9. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    The budget is massive $200-225 million + a nine figure marketing campaign. They are going all out on this one.

    Christopher Nolan's 'Tenet' to Cost More Than $200 Million

    Christopher Nolan‘s new action movie Tenet will cost more than $200 million, sources tell Collider in the wake of a Variety story that pegged the number at an eye-popping $225 million — and that’s before a nine-figure marketing campaign.

    Nolan is, of course, one of the few people on the planet who could command such an enormous budget for an original movie that isn’t based on a popular IP. Collider’s sources put the number at $205 million — at least — which isn’t to cast aspersions toward Variety’s report, but simply confirms the trade’s conclusion that the budget is, without question, north of the $200 million milestone. Interestingly enough, the trade later revised its number to $205 million without noting any kind of update.
  10. keefer1970

    keefer1970 Metal, Movies, Beer!

    New Jersey
    Who the hell asked for a Peter Rabbit 2?
  11. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Forum Resident

    That's easy, it grossed $351 million worldwide on a $50 million production budget. A pretty good money maker for Sony.
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  12. Mirrorblade.1

    Mirrorblade.1 Forum Resident

    Black Widow, won't do big numbers like others. I think the reign of disney marvel
    is winding down whats coming down the road I have no interest in.
  13. Luke The Drifter

    Luke The Drifter Forum Resident

    United States
    These English films in this style are charming family fare. Our family loves both Paddington films and Peter Rabbit.
    PhantomStranger and SandAndGlass like this.
  14. balzac

    balzac Forum Resident

    It's always interesting to look at these lists. But really, there are very few items on this list (especially in the extreme "hit" and "bomb" sections) that require much extra insight. Their "bomb" list is mostly made up of films that have had bad publicity for some time now, especially items like "Dolittle", "Sonic..", and "The New Mutants", which has been well known as having been shot about 27 years ago while they futz with it.

    I think Variety passed on some of the small number of bigger films that are more clear question marks, like Marvel's "The Eternals", which is an unknown to most (bad sign), but has the MCU branding (always a VERY GOOD sign).

    Between industry talk and potent box office projection tools using comps+IMDB page views+ticket sales, etc., a film *very rarely* is a true surprise in either direction. The most common "surprises" are moderate bombs severely bombing, or films projected to do well ending up doing *very well*.

    But it gets pretty tiring to read 12-18 months of industry/trade/entertainment news outlets telling you "The New Mutants" is going to bomb, and then on the day it bombs, writing a ton of hyperbolic articles about how it bombed.

    The most interesting cases are cases where a film performs smack-dab in the middle of potential projections, and then you get weird conflicting headlines where media outlets take the same film and same numbers and run in opposite directions.
  15. balzac

    balzac Forum Resident

    I can't imagine "Black Widow" will do poorly, it's still tied into all the other popular MCU stuff. The interesting moments will come with the next two films after that, "The Eternals" and "Shang-Chi". It'll be interesting to see how far the "Marvel" branding pulls those along.

    I say if those two underperform, look for Marvel to fast-track some "X-Men" cameos and films.
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  16. balzac

    balzac Forum Resident

    If that previous movie is the Charlie's Angels reboot, it should be noted that she made "Underwater" well before "Charlie's Angels" came out. They came out only two months apart. I'm not defending those films or Stewart. I haven't seen either and everything I saw of those films ahead of time via trailers, etc. didn't indicate they'd do well. But there's no way for a lesson to be learned between two films when they are released nearly concurrently.

    I saw "Underwater" trailers months ago and it always looked like a big dumb Poseidon Adventure/The Meg/Snakes on a Plane sort of deal, like a something between "The Abyss" and a "Syfy Channel" movie.

    Perhaps they were hoping at least for "47 Meters Down" performance (a film that only made money by freak accident; it nearly went straight to video before being pulled back to wait for a theatrical release; some copies of the film actually made it to stores during that initial phase, where the film had a different title, "In the Deep").
    SandAndGlass likes this.
  17. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Pulling in the heavy hitters at the box office? Good to know that they didn't blow all of their budget on star power!

    Christopher Nolan’s ‘Tenet’ Adds ‘Yesterday’ Star Himesh Patel

  18. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    Kristen's been on this kick for a few years now. Hasn't had for a while either.

    I predict that this will continue on as more of the same.

    Investors don't seem to be quick on the uptake.
  19. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
    I'm more fascinated when a film is predicted to bomb or maybe be a disappointment, but goes on to be a surprisingly strong hit. I think The Greatest Showman is an example of that rare phenomena: I don't think anybody expected it to break even, let alone score $435 million worldwide.

    Himesh was the star of Yesterday, and I think that film overcame expectations ($151M gross on a budget of about $35M), and the actor got very good reviews.

    Nolan's films almost always have large casts, maybe a dozen or more speaking roles, so it figures that he would lean towards diverse actors for a big worldwide conspiracy epic action piece.
  20. Chee

    Chee Forum Resident

    Coming 2 America will be the biggest box office in the U.S.A.. 007 Second. 007 will be #1 worlwide with Tom Cuise second, he's mega overseas like 007.
  21. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Hollywood, USA
    I don't think that will be true, but I think both Coming to America 2 and the new Bond film will do very well. I don't see either of them doing over $1 billion, not even close.
    SandAndGlass likes this.
  22. mBen989

    mBen989 Forum Resident

    Scranton, PA
    ?rhtaE sdrawkcab a no tes edosipe na did frawD deR noitnem I dluohS
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  23. carlwm

    carlwm Forum Resident

    That's easy for you to say! :)
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  24. The Hermit

    The Hermit Wavin' that magick glowstick since 1976

    Dune is the only one of those films that depends on box-office success to actually finish the story... and I'm not so confident that it will do that kind of boffo box-office to greenlight the concluding installment, which arguably will be even bigger in scale and budget than the first one.

    Hope I'm wrong, but let's face it, this is a hugely risky strategy they're following on this adaptation...
    SandAndGlass likes this.
  25. htraE*
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