Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

You realize we're still in a global pandemic and box office is roughly 25-33% what it was prior to March 2020, right? Using Spiderman as an example of everything back to normal is like saying because Adele's last cd is selling well that obviously record sales are normal again. Dune was the highest grossing of all the HBO Max day and date titles and they were happy enough with its gross to greenlight the followup after opening weekend. The lofty days of movies grossing 300-400 million without any effort are over and we need to accept that. 107 million in 2021 and a home streaming release the same day isnt that bad, its not like we're talking about Space Jam, Suicide Squad or Matrix

 

The CEO of WB is Ann Sarnoff. She is fairly new to the role and reports directly to the CEO of AT&T.

I get what you're saying about the box office numbers (Dune 1 wasn't a big hit even by pandemic standards) but the deals are all locked in and work is already underway. If WB backed out of Dune 2 now, after the debacle of the 2021 day-and-date HBOMax release plan, it is likely that it would precipitate a DGA and WGA boycott of WB. That would ensure that no "IP" films are made, and no corporate ownership would let that happen.

Funnily enough, Joss Whedon actually got his start in the business scabbing during the 1988 WGA strike. (He had an "in" of course because he was a third-generation TV writer.) He contributed to the script for what is often regarded as the first "modern" superhero movie, X-Men. Then he ended up making the movie whose success crystallized the current "IP" craze -- Avengers. And then he played a role in blowing up WB's plans for the same type of marketing convergence (Justice League). If the IP craze leads to a union boycott at WB, it would really bring the whole thing full circle, wouldn't it?

 

Actually, AT&T is getting rid of Warner Bros., making it a subsidiary as of about 2 months ago...

AT&T to spin off WarnerMedia, basically admitting giant merger was a mistake

 

That is what I meant by the merger, the new head of Warner, is going to be the guy that runs Discovery. And he was/is the person, that does not believe they should be involved in any film/tv business , unless they own the IP. He's a dollar and cents person. Like I stated, if he does not cut ties with Dune. I could see him releasing the film without a push. And just moving on.

 

I believe Tenet was available on other Streaming services , for a bit. Contracts were completed. Before HBO/MAX streaming was finalized.


The older Suicide Squad benefited from the new TSS .

That the new Suicide Squad did poorly at streaming (for a blockbuster fim) , does not surprise me. Just like its Box-Office. DC's core audience, is very serious about their superhero/comicbook stuff. Mixing the 1966 Batman TV Show with Deadpool, was never going to appeal, to their current audience.

 

Mission Impossible news.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/21/tom-cruises-mission-impossible-7-and-8-have-been-delayed.html

• Paramount Pictures and Skydance said the seventh and eighth installments in the Mission Impossible franchise would be delayed due to the ongoing pandemic.
• The yet untitled “Mission Impossible 7” will now arrive in theaters on July 14, 2023, and “Mission Impossible 8″ is set for June 28, 2024.

The Tom Cruise led “Mission Impossible 7” is moving on the calendar once again. This time, it’s setting its sights on 2023.

Paramount Pictures and Skydance said Friday that both the seventh and eighth installments in the blockbuster movie franchise would be delayed due to the ongoing pandemic. The yet untitled “Mission Impossible 7” will now arrive in theaters on July 14, 2023, and “Mission Impossible 8″ is set for June 28, 2024.

This is the latest of several moves for the seventh Mission Impossible film, which has faced production delays throughout the pandemic. Its most recent release date was May 27, 2022.

The postponement comes as the domestic box office has been hit or miss with major blockbuster features. While a film like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” has generated more than $703 million in the U.S. and Canada, no other film released in 2021 has garnered more than $225 million in ticket sales domestically.

The Mission Impossible franchise has relied heavily on international ticket sales, especially from China. “Mission Impossible: Fallout” tallied $791 million in global ticket sales when it came out 2018, and around $570 million of that total came from sales outside the U.S. and Canada. Ticket sales in China accounted for around $181 million of the film’s gross.

 

Spider-Man moves up two more spots, now #6.

1- Avatar $2,847,246,203 (2009)
2- Avengers: Endgame $2,797,501,328 (2019)
3- Titanic $2,201,647,264 (1997)
4- Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens $2,069,521,700 (2015)
5- Avengers: Infinity War $2,048,359,754 (2018)
6- Spider-Man: No Way Home $1,691,110,988 (2021)
7- Jurassic World $1,670,516,444 (2015)
8- The Lion King $1,662,899,439 (2019)
9- The Avengers $1,518,815,515 (2012)
10- Furious 7 $1,515,341,399 (2015)

 

Great for Spider-Man! But this list is a bit on the dismal side.

Consider that Jurassic World is in 7th place in world-wide box office numbers.

While I didn't think it was a bad movie, neither did I think it was a particularly good movie. I wouldn't even give it a high ranking on the Jurassic Park meter.

Consider that it only received a 71% approval rating on the Tomatometer and an audience approval rating of 78%.

We are now living in an age where the studios can make a very average movie and reap in close to 2B at the box office. This is insane...

 

Jurassic World coasted on a lot of nostalgia and goodwill from the original. The followup still did well, but didn't come close to the level of success of JW as a lot of that newness wore off. Me, I have a Spielberg blu-ray set from Universal that contains the first two movies and that's all I need for the Jurassic franchise.

 

Maybe not but that is not hampering the studio who is full speed ahead on a 165M budget, Jurassic World: Dominion, scheduled for a June release this year.

 

We aren't the target market for most of these big cineplex blockbusters. The oldest movie in the top 10 is Titanic $2.2B (1997) a stunning box office smash as it more than doubled the previous record holder The Lion King $1.064B (1994) . I don't think we'll see the likes of this ever again.

Top 6 Domestic gross 1997 & prior releases

7- Titanic $659,363,944 1997
20- Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope $460,998,507 1977
24- E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial $435,110,554 1982
29- The Lion King $422,783,777 1994
38- Jurassic Park $404,214,720 1993
68- Forrest Gump $330,455,270 1994

 

Bear in mind of course that the figures are unadjusted for inflation.

 

Yes, I get that. Otherwise Gone With the Wind, Jurassic Park and Star Wars would likely be high on the list.

Still, look at how long ago Titanic and the more recent (but decade old) Avatar has been. Surely, we should have had more quality films this millimum that have unadjusted box office numbers to make the list!

I understand the pandemic but that is only the last two years...

Not that we have had any really outstanding movies during this period anyway.

 

And this is not good. I think the article makes a few good points:

2022’s Biggest Sci-Fi Movies Are All Sequels (& That’s A Problem)

The article omits the list, but here's what I have:

Avatar 2 - November 23
Creed III - October TBA, 2022
Hocus Pocus 2 - October 7, 2022
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One) - October 14, 2022
Halloween Ends - July 1, 2022
Minions: The Rise of Gru - July 8, 2022
Thor: Love and Thunder - June 10, 2022
Jurassic World Dominion - May 6, 2022
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - May 27, 2022
Top Gun: Maverick - April 15, 2022
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore - March 18, 2022
Downton Abbey: A New Era - February 11, 2022
Death on the Nile -
Tall Girl 2 - February 25, 2022
Tyler Perry's A Madea Homecoming - January 14, 2022
Scream
Hotel Transylvania: Transformania - Friday, January 28, 2022
The Ice Age Adventures of Buck Wild

Sequel Movies 2022: New & Upcoming Sequel Movies 2022 List - Movie Insider

A bunch of these fall into the "haven't I seen this before?" or "I don't give a crap about that" categories for me.

And by the way, for those who think that Netflix streaming may pick up the slack for some original films... this is not good news:

Netflix Lost $50 Billion in Value Overnight

 

Anyone know is I am missing any more streaming only? Obviously HT: 4 was/is, Madea is (I think) , Buck Wild is ,

 

Fantastic Beasts is a huge ??? , at this point. More so in the US/Canada (still this is the market that matters most)

 

I've never even heard of half of these.

There again, my favourite film is still 'The Great Escape'.

 

That article could've been written in any of the last 10-15 years, it's no surprise that the industry loves successful franchises. One has to remember though that a debut movie needs to connect with enough viewers to warrant a second, third, fourth etc....if Star Wars did the same box-office numbers as THX-1138 it never gets a second look.

 

I just finished watching Foundation on Apple TV. I was shocked at the production value. Maybe all the creative plot and character driven original ideas will wind up on streaming? And movies will just be for big budget blockbuster sequels and remakes?

 

From the Toronto Sun - 37 "must" see movies for 2022.

As we embark on a new year, with cinemas in Ontario reopening on Jan. 31, here are 37 of the most anticipated films Hollywood will be bringing to audiences on the big screen in 2022.

Scream (In select theatres now)
Twenty-five years after a streak of brutal murders shocked the quiet town, a new killer dons the Ghostface mask and begins targeting a group of teenagers. “There’s a lot of blood in this movie,” returning star Neve Campbell warns the Sun .

Jackass Forever (Feb. 4)
After 11 years, Johnny Knoxville, Steve-O and the rest of the gang return for one last round of hilarious stunts.

Moonfall (Feb. 4)
Two astronauts (Halle Berry and Patrick Wilson) and a conspiracy theorist (John Bradley) band together to save humanity after the moon is knocked from its orbit and sent on a collision course with Earth. Roland Emmerich directs.

Death on the Nile (Feb. 11)
Kenneth Branagh returns as Hercule Poirot in this upcoming adaptation of the Agatha Christie whodunnit, which finds the detective investigating the murder of an heiress aboard a cruise ship on the Nile River. Gal Gadot and Armie Hammer co-star.

Uncharted (Feb. 18)
Tom Holland plays Nathan Drake in the big-screen adaptation of the popular video game, which follows a globe-trotting treasure hunter who unearths historical mysteries. Mark Wahlberg and Antonio Banderas co-star.

Dog (Feb. 18)
A U.S. Army Ranger (Channing Tatum) is tasked with bringing a military working dog down the Pacific Coast to attend her handler’s funeral.

The Batman (March 4)
Two years into his career of scrubbing criminals from Gotham’s streets, the Batman (Robert Pattinson) is drawn into a deadly game of cat-and-mouse when Edward Nashton/aka The Riddler (Paul Dano) starts killing the city’s elite. Zoe Kravitz, who stars as Catwoman in the upcoming DC film, says Pattinson is the perfect Batman. “He was incredible. His transformation was out of this world.”

Downton Abbey: A New Era (March 18)
The newest instalment in the popular franchise finds the Crawleys travelling to the South of France.

The Lost City (March 25)
A handsome cover model (Channing Tatum) is forced to become a hero in real life when a romance novelist (Sandra Bullock) is kidnapped by an eccentric billionaire (Daniel Radcliffe). Brad Pitt also stars.

Morbius (April 1)
Sony’s latest Spider-Man spinoff once again digs into the wall-crawler’s vast array of villains, this time with Jared Leto playing Dr. Michael Morbius, a scientist who accidentally turns himself into a vampire.

Ambulance (April 8)
In desperate need of money to cover his wife’s medical bills, a military veteran (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II) agrees to help his adoptive brother (Jake Gyllenhaal) rob a Los Angeles bank. Michael Bay directs.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (April 8)
Sonic (Ben Schwartz) and his new pal Tails (Colleen O’Shaughnessey) attempt to stop Dr. Robotnik (Jim Carrey ) and his new partner Knuckles (Idris Elba) as they hunt for a mystical emerald that has the power to destroy civilizations.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (April 15)
Newt Scamander ( Eddie Redmayne ) learns more about his mentor Albus Dumbledore (Jude Law) as he tries to stop the evil Gellert Grindelwald (Mads Mikkelsen taking over from Johnny Depp). “I know where he’s going,” Law says in an interview with the Sun . “So I’ve got this aim in my mind and I get to take you closer and closer to the Dumbledore we know and love from the Potter world.”

65 (April 29)
Adam Driver plays an astronaut who crash-lands on a mysterious planet only to discover he’s not alone.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (May 6)
After Sylvie (Sophia Di Martino) uncorked the multiverse in Loki and Stephen Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) unleashed a multitude of Spider-Man villains in last month’s No Way Home , Marvel’s Sorcerer Supreme will try to stitch everything back together in the ambitiously dark sequel. “There might be some scares coming up in the new Doctor Strange film,” Cumberbatch tells the Sun . Elizabeth Olsen co-stars as Wanda Maximoff/ Scarlet Witch with Sam Raimi directing.

Top Gun: Maverick (May 27)
Thirty-six years after his 1986 classic, Tom Cruise is stepping back into the cockpit as Pete “Maverick” Mitchell in the long-awaited sequel. In the follow-up, Maverick shows a new class of fighter pilots how to fly the skies. But things change when he encounters Lt. Bradley Bradshaw (Miles Teller), the son of Maverick’s late friend “Goose”.

Jurassic World: Dominion (June 10)
Original trilogy stars Sam Neill, Laura Dern and Jeff Goldblum join Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard in the sixth instalment of the ongoing dino franchise. “At the end of Fallen Kingdom, we opened Pandora’s Box and it can’t be shut again,” Howard tells the Sun . “These animals are out in the world.”

Lightyear (June 17)
Chris Evans takes over from Tim Allen in this animated tale that recounts the origin story of popular Toy Story character Buzz Lightyear.

The Black Phone (June 24)
After a young boy (Mason Thames) is kidnapped by a serial killer (Ethan Hawke) and trapped inside a soundproof basement, he learns his only way out is by communicating with the murderer’s previous victims through a mysterious black phone.

Elvis (June 24)
Moulin Rogue director Baz Luhrmann chronicles the life and career of rock-and-roll icon Elvis Presley. Tom Hanks stars as Colonel Tom Parker, Elvis’ manager, with newcomer Austin Butler stepping into the shoes of The King.

Thor: Love and Thunder (July 8)
Jumping off from 2017’s zany Thor: Ragnarok , Chris Hemsworth promises the next instalment in the Marvel series “is gonna be bats— crazy off-the-wall funny and might also pull a heart string or two.” Natalie Portman co-stars with Taika Waititi back to direct.

Bullet Train (July 15)
Five assassins aboard a bullet train find out their missions are all interconnected. Brad Pitt and Sandra Bullock star.

Where the Crawdads Sing
(July 22)
Anne Hathaway toplines the adaptation of Delia Owens’ best-selling novel about a young girl who, after being abandoned by her parents, learns life’s lessons from the land.

Nope (July 22)
Very little is known about Jordan Peele’s next film — other than the poster showcases an ominous storm cloud and the cast includes Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer and Steven Yuen.

Black Adam (July 29)
“As we all know, superheroes have a code of justice and don’t kill the bad guys. But, Black Adam does,” star Dwayne Johnson teases of his upcoming superhero film. “The hierarchy of power in the DC Universe is changing.”

The Man From Toronto (Aug. 8)
Toronto gets to play itself on the big screen when a screw-up (Kevin Hart) and an assassin (Woody Harrelson) are forced to band together after a case of mistaken identity.

Salem’s Lot (Sept. 9)
Based on the Stephen King horror classic, the film follows Ben Mears (Lewis Pullman), a writer who returns to his hometown only to find there’s a mysterious force that is turning its residents into vampires.

Don’t Worry Darling (Sept. 23)
Director Olivia Wilde reteams with Booksmart screenwriter Katie Silberman for a story of a 1950s housewife (Florence Pugh) who comes to the realization her husband (Harry Styles) might be harbouring a dark secret.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One) (Oct. 7)
Miles Morales embarks on an adventure across the multiverse with Gwen Stacy and a new team of Spider heroes as they do battle with a powerful new villain in the animated adventure.

Halloween Ends (Oct. 14)
Director David Gordon Green’s rebooted Halloween sequel trilogy comes to its bloody conclusion as Laurie Strode (Jamie Lee Curtis) looks to end Michael Myers’ killing spree once and for all.

The Flash (Nov. 4)
Ezra Miller’s long-awaited Flash movie adapts the Flashpoint comic book storyline, which finds the heroic speedster travelling back in time to stop the death of his mother. During his travels, Miller’s Barry Allen encounters different timelines, including the one Michael Keaton’s Batman appeared in, as well as another featuring Ben Affleck’s Caped Crusader.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Nov. 11)
After the death of Chadwick Boseman, the anticipated follow-up to Black Panther centres on Letitia Wright’s Shuri, the sister of T’Challa.

Creed III (Nov. 23)
Michael B. Jordan directs and stars as Apollo Creed’s son, Adonis, in the third instalment of the Rocky spinoff. “It’ll be the third time that I’ve played any character … I have a lot of ideas and I know what I want to say,” Jordan tells the Sun .

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Dec. 16)
“Aquaman 2 is very heavily inspired by Planet of the Vampires ,” writer-director James Wan teases. “You can take the boy out of horror, but you can never take the horror out (of) the boy.” In addition to returning star Jason Momoa, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom stars Amber Heard, Patrick Wilson, Dolph Lundgren, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Temuera Morrison.

Avatar 2 (Dec. 16)
James Cameron welcomes audiences back to Pandora with an ambitious sequel that’s been over a decade in the making. “I deal with images in that world every single day, and there are some days when I look at those images and say, ‘This is really amazing,’ ” Cameron tells the Sun . “I’m not patting myself on the back with that comment.”

Wanna Dance with Somebody (Dec. 23)
BAFTA winner and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker actress Naomi Ackie plays Whitney Houston in the anticipated musical biopic.

Babylon (Dec. 25)
The next movie from the Oscar-winning La La Land director Damien Chazelle takes place in 1920s Hollywood as the motion picture industry shifts from silent film to talkies. Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie star.

 

The saddest part about John Carter, Lone Ranger and Tomorrowland is that Disney stopped taking risks as a result

 

I think is less about taking risks then it is about a money grab. Disney is a greedy mouse and is getting greedier by the minute.

This was evidenced by Tomorrowland. It is not a question if it is or is not a good movie, that is not the point.

The point is that Disney made this huge marketing effort to tie the movie into the "Tomorrowland" of the Disney theme parks.

All of the trailers show "a bright beautiful tomorrow" as the future. None of them show that the future is a grim dystopia. And, certainly no part of the movie remotely is even remotely tied to the Tomorrowland of the theme parks.

This was grossly misleading the publics expectations. Doing this erodes the public trust. Disney is going to stick to franchises that are well known properties and cash cows. This is why the bought Lucasfilm and certain movie studios.

I see half of the major movies that will now be released will be major franchises and ones produced by Disney.

Where the public looses in this is that the normal non-franchise middle class ends up being the loosers caught in the middle.

On one end, there are the huge franchises and on the opposite end are the self-serving Hollywood, Academy Award darlings that the general public has little to no interest in. Very little to be found in the middle anymore.

 

I think a simple fact is that the American movie ticket buying audience likes George Clooney A LOT less than the studios think.

 

There is some truth to that: making sequels and franchise films was seen as a "surefire bet" compared to one-of-a-kind films like John Carter, Lone Ranger, and Tomorrowland. When you find out the studio is going to do a live-action remake of Aristocats, you know they've hit the bottom of the barrel...

'The Aristocats' Live-Action Remake in the Works at Disney - Variety

More than one person has said that these days all the mid-budget "human drama"-type films are winding up on Amazon/Apple/Hulu/Netflix/Paramount/etc. streaming services. Disney/Lucasfilm/Marvel has said that they're approaching most of their TV series as "$200 million films, spread out over 10-12 episodes." That's certainly been true in terms of Loki, WandaVision, Mandalorian, and Boba Fett.

 

Lucas said many times in early 1977 prior to the release of Star Wars that he felt that, best case, Star Wars would do a little better than break even and maybe generate some income from toy merchandise. Even a week before release, he had no idea it was going to be a big hit. At that point, he was convinced it wasn't going to be the disaster he had feared, but he braced himself for bad reviews... which never came.