Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

I prefer exact figures, not averages. Also, your math is wrong.

 

I just noticed, oh well that's an "F".

 

yes , I could not figure out his point, we did have Cable , all through the 60s , so maybe things were different for him. But eventually 90% of all films ended up on TV

 

If movies had always reported ticket sales instead of $$$, those totals would resonate.

Record sales were always actual units, not $$$, so there's obviously precedent.

Book sales too.

 

Back on schedule? apparently Minions is the last major release that was delayed due to Covid.

 

4-day long weekend forecast

 

And now the analysts are arguing as to whether Rise of Gru can avoid being the kind of "relative flop" that Lightyear was:

Why 'Minions: The Rise of Gru' Can Succeed at the Box Office Where 'Lightyear' Failed

Be warned that most of this article is behind a pay wall. This second article is wide open...

The Real Reason Lightyear Tanked At The Box Office

 

Minions is set for a big weekend. Predictions were as low as $60m early in the week but those have quickly raised to $100m for the three day weekend. Previews are looking good.

The Minions IP is extremely popular. Expect it to blow the doors off of Lightyear.

 

"Rise" can succeed because it's a sequel to a hugely successful movie that continues that continuity.

"Lightyear" was some weird offspring/spinoff that no one understood or wanted.

Dunno why anyone would write an article about this. Of course "Rise" had stronger commercial prospects!

 

Yeah, as I allude above, it's bizarre that there'd be comparisons between "Rise of Gru" and "Lightyear", as they're not similar projects.

Now if "Lightyear" had been a true "Toy Story" spinoff... that'd be in the same vein as "Minions". A "TS" equivalent would be a movie about the Little Green Men.

But "Lightyear" isn't about any actual "TS" characters, whereas "Minions" was, and so is "Rise".

And the Minions have remained popular...

 

That's exactly it. Nobody wanted Lightyear. Retrofitting it to be the movie Andy saw in 1995 only made me think about how great the Toy Story movies are instead of making me watch this one.

People love Buzz. But they love the Toy Story version of Buzz, not some alternate version like in Lightyear.

 

Minions - better than expected
ELVIS - down 39% (not bad)
TGM: holding steady, minor drop from last weekend
JWD: down 41% from last weekend

 

not if you feel its correct.

 

On another forum I saw someone compare Lightyear to Solo which I found pretty apt. Both aren't bad movies per se but feature an origin story that nobody needed nor wanted to see. They also both recasted a popular character, for different reasons, diminishing the interest even more. For better or worse, both Han as well as Buzz are defined by their principal actors that made an impression on people since they were casted.
Suddenly using a different actor was bound to cause confusion and backlash.

 

Wow, very surprised that Minions went through the roof over the weekend...

Box Office: 'Minions: The Rise of Gru' Lead July 4th Holiday Weekend - Variety

This has got to piss off Disney, who I know were upset that Lightyear did far worse than expected.

 

Its been my unscientific observation that big theaters always have two children's movies screening, regardless of their individual box office or reviews. You know, for those families with young children that still go to the theater once in a while.

 

This columnist predicts that Tom Cruise will be netting somewhere north of $80 million for Top Gun: Maverick, which is not a bad pay day.

Tom Cruise To Make An Absurd Amount Of Money Off ‘Top Gun: Maverick’

Note he took a relatively-low $12.5 million up front, but then got a percentage of the profits once it hit a certain number. I think that's a pretty good way to do business: if the movie bombs, the actor doesn't make much money... but if it's a big hit, then the actor prospers.

 

The movie made an absurd $1.1 billion so far..without a single penny from China and $570M domestic, and looks like it won't stop.

I thought Jurassic World 3 would overtake Top Gun 2 in one or two weeks since its release but the dinos are, as of today, $235M behind.

Paramount are pushing to make it available on streaming ASAP but Cruise wants to keep the movie a bit longer

When might Top Gun: Maverick come to streaming services?

Cruise is right; Paramount should make this film exclusive to theaters as long as they can.

 

TGM still has gas in the tank, they need to let it run its course. I agree with Cruise, the streaming division execs are only looking out for themselves not Paramount as a whole. There's no way subscriber growth can outperform what TGM is currently doing at the box office.

Domestic Weekly results

Week / $$ / # of Theatres
May 27-Jun 2: $205,604,011 /4,735
Jun 3-9: $137,739,925 /4,751
Jun 10-16: $78,823,609 /4,262
Jun 17-23: $69,055,279 /4,035
Jun 24-30: $47,252,543 /3,948

Jul 1-7: $44,000,000 (estimate)

if it draws down at 40% beyond Jul 7 it would still add another $64.5 million to its domestic total (another 7 weeks).

 

Trailer for Amsterdam coming in November.

 

100%.

If Pixar had made a Buzz movie that fit better with the character in the "TS" movies and that used Tim Allen's voice, I think it does much better business.

 

Yeah. There was actually a Buzz Lightyear cartoon series that dealt with Buzz and his squad dealing with space stuff. Never saw it myself but from what I've heard it seems pretty allright and the Buzz in the show actually matches the TS Buzz in character.

When they brought it to VHS they actually made an intro with the regular TS cast.

 

It doesn’t sound like Tim Allen voicing Buzz.

JohnK

 

Patrick Warburton played Buzz for the TV series, though Allen did the voice for the "Adventure Begins" direct-to-video movie.