Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

Discussion in 'Visual Arts' started by Vidiot, Jan 7, 2022.

  1. Jim B.

    Jim B. Forum Resident

    Location:
    UK
    I'm not irate btw lol. Just chatting about films. So people do take forum's far too seriously.

    Anyway, the truth is we will never know if a film made money. Even when they do what with 'Hollywood accounting's you never know the truth. It's very complex.

    Plus you have DVD sales going on for a while, and how do you calculate the benefit to a streaming service?

    Wouldn't it be brilliant though if studios were forced to publish a basic profit or loss for each film as comprehensive as possible.
     
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  2. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    The 1st "BP" was a genuine cultural phenomenon - that's lightning/bottle that can't be recaptured.
     
  3. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Ehhhhhh... I don't think The Abyss made money: cost $47M, made $90M. In 2021, Cameron said: ""So I just recently finished the high-def transfer a couple of months ago so presumably there’ll be Blu-rays and it will stream with a proper transfer from now on. I appreciate what you said about the film. It didn't make much money in its day, but it does seem to be well-liked over time." (It was actually remastered in 2011 and 2012 for Fox, so that actually wasn't recent.)
     
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  4. mBen989

    mBen989 Forum Resident

    Location:
    Scranton, PA
    Here, watch this.
     
  5. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Yeah, that's the one Cameron said the home release (PPV/rentals/DVD/licensing) saved that one.
     
  6. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    Theatrically, "Abyss" became a semi-flop: expensive and much touted but didn't do much at the box office in that very competitive summer.

    But as you imply, it's been perennially popular on home video.

    It helped that Cameron attempted to rehabilitate the movie's image so soon. He put out the extended edition in 1993, and that allowed the movie to find a bigger audience.

    So yeah, "Abyss" has almost certainly turned a profit when you factor in home video.

    Though it would've turned more of a profit if we'd gotten an updated home video release since 1999.

    Really stunning that such a popular title hasn't been reissued since the non-anamorphic 1999 DVD - and I'm pretty sure that disc just recycled the 1993 laserdisc scan! :sigh:
     
  7. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    If Disney wants to generate some easy $$, get Cameron to finally sign off on Blu/4K versions of True Lies and The Abyss, everything else he's ever done has been released multiple times on on Blu Ray.
     
  8. Oatsdad

    Oatsdad Oat, Biscuits, Abbie & Mitzi: Best Dogs Ever

    Location:
    Alexandria VA
    We've gotten conflicting info on who's holding up those films - or at least "Abyss". Seems like those involved might not be eager to produce "True Lies" again due to its less than PC elements.

    Cameron has blamed Fox - now Disney - and basically said it's on them, which I never believed. Cameron has more than enough clout to force Fox/Disney to release "Abyss" and/or "Lies".
     
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  9. Mccook

    Mccook Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    Worth noting, the only way to see that edition from 93-98 was the special laser disc version released in 1993 that retailed for $99.99 (about $200 in todays USD). That and the Aliens box made ridiculous money from high end collectors.
     
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  10. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Cameron talks recently with GQ about his movies, interesting stuff.

     
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  11. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    I honestly don't know what the problem is... because that home video work was all done and approved about 10 years ago. TheDigitalBits said:

    On that note, lot of you have asked what’s going on with the Blu-ray release of Cameron’s The Abyss and True Lies, and the Cameron-produced Strange Days, here in the States. The answer seems to be that it’s complicated. There appears to be a dispute or pissing match of some kind going on between Cameron and 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. Cameron points the finger squarely at TCFHE, and for their part TCFHE says nothing. But our information would suggest that there are larger issues at play here than just these titles. All of which is terribly frustrating for fans who know that work has been done on these discs and who are eagerly awaiting them, but there it is.

    1776: Director’s Cut coming to BD, plus Strange Days: 20th (in Germany), a Giger documentary & Kubrick’s Spartacus!

    A Fox insider told me some years ago, "every time we try to get Cameron to approve the home video masters -- which is a perfect HD match for the one done a decade earlier -- he says he's busy, or he goes out of the country, or he goes down in the Marianna Trench. His people say he's 'not available for the next three months.'"

    I think he's whistling Dixie. I think Abyss sold well, but not that well. And studios have traditionally greatly reduced the royalties paid to talent from home video. They would have had to have made another $100 million on home video to be profitable, and that just didn't happen.

    For the record, I like the special edition of The Abyss quite a bit, but I saw the original movie on opening day in the summer of 1989, and believe me, audiences were laughing at some dramatic moments of the film, which is never a good sign. I liked the film a lot, but I've actually done some scuba-diving, been on boats for thousands of hours, and I'm pretty deep into science fiction, so it wasn't a stretch for me to like the film.

    I think several of the Cameron films are coming out on 4K Blu-ray in the next few months. I would be surprised if the expanded versions of Aliens, Abyss and True Lies weren't among them.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2022
  12. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    This will help Avatar - The Way of Water assuming China isn't in partial/full Covid lockdown.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/23/disneys-avatar-the-way-of-water-gets-coveted-china-release.html

    • Disney’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” will be released in China on Dec. 16.
    • International ticket sales, in general, were a major factor in “Avatar’s” box office success in 2009, as $2.13 billion of the film’s total $2.91 billion in ticket sales came from outside the domestic market.
    • Prior to the pandemic, China was the second-highest grossing theatrical market in the world. Since cinemas reopened in the country, it has been one of the fastest markets to recover and generate box office success.
     
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  13. Mccook

    Mccook Forum Resident

    Location:
    OR
    I think the China release means this will 100% will pass a billion. Even with COVID, the absolute lack of Hollywood competition in China and the novelty of well rendered 3D will keep this in theaters a very long time.
     
  14. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    The biggest movie in China this year is The Battle at Lake Changjin II (Water Gate Bridge) with a gross of $626 million USD in China. Avengers Endgame is the US record holder in China with $629 million.

    Avatar grossed $261.8 million over 3 releases incl. $57.7 million last year.

    If they can clear $200 million for WoW I would consider that a success given the possible lockdowns.
     
  15. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    Tickets have been on-sale for 48 hours, early tracking for Avatar WoW according to Variety.

    'Avatar: The Way of Water' on Track to Open to $175 Million - Variety

    Moviegoers are pretty psyched to return to Pandora.

    Avatar: The Way of Water,” James Cameron’s next epic adventure, is poised to open to at least $150 million domestically when it debuts in theaters in December. Early tracking indicates that opening weekend figure could fly even higher, reaching $175 million or more. “Avatar: The Way of Water” has been in the works for years, with Cameron blowing past several deadlines and release dates with his drive to push technology and cinematic gadgetry to the limits.

    The first “Avatar” opened to $77 million back in 2009 (worth noting, however, that there was a major snow storm in the U.S. that weekend, which muted grosses). It went on to build and build, becoming a box office phenomenon thanks to its innovative use of 3D. “Avatar” ultimately grossed $2.7 billion globally. That figure will be hard to match post-COVID with the box office still struggling to rebound and major markets like Russia closed to Hollywood.
     
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  16. MikaelaArsenault

    MikaelaArsenault Forum Resident

    Location:
    New Hampshire
  17. Dillydipper

    Dillydipper Sultan Of Snark

    Location:
    Central PA
    I wonder if box office for Way Of Water does anything to boost the sales of home video projectors in the coming years. It's the only reasonable way to screen 3D at home now, even though VR goggles will do it. You still need a compatible blu-ray player though, but that's easier than locating a satisfactory 3D television.

    Which reminds me, I need to check my 3D blu-ray collection to see if I'm missing any priority buys, before the supply dwindles...:idea:
     
  18. Deuce66

    Deuce66 Senior Member

    Location:
    Canada
    I think the home 3D market is dead, they tried it failed.
     
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  19. Dillydipper

    Dillydipper Sultan Of Snark

    Location:
    Central PA
    I think those who cling to their early-21st-century plasma TV's, blu-rays and players will do the same thing vinyl fetishists did when their record stores stopped selling LP's in the '80s: grouse, and persist.

    I'm not saying there will be some great renaissance of "3D vinyls" in years to come, I'm only wondering if the sales of projectors will benefit from the "killer app" example of a new, major 3D release. Blade Runner 2049 didn't do it, but Cameron's franchise already has traction in the marketplace in that regard.
     
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  20. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I don't think so. Avatar set it on motion along with the multitude of 3D movies to follow.

    Children love the 3D effects, which for them, were mostly animated features.

    The problem was, like in the theaters, what was to follow were hundreds of poorly executed 3D movies.

    So the public lost interest and the the feature was removed from 4K large screen home TV's, some years ago.

    At that point, people had no choice in the matter. Naturally, people updated their TV's and lost 3D as a feature in the process.

    But, as we will all see again, 3D is not dead, it is dormant. It will rise again in the theaters and at home.

    Projection TV sets are dropping in prices significantly. 3D is available on most of these. I expect the 3D come back, to be heavy with home projectors.

    3D is ultimately not going anywhere and will remain with us in the foreseeable future...
     
  21. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    And now it looks like the new Disney action/fantasy film Strange World is going to tank...

    Box Office: Disney's 'Strange World' Earns Weak $800,000 in Previews - Variety

    Depending on who you talk to, the film cost as much as $180 million, which means it would need to make north of $400M just to break even. If it does as badly as Jungle Cruise (the live action Dwayne Johnson stinker), which cost $220M but only made $200M, they'll be in trouble. The last animated film to tank was Pixar's Onward, a film I mostly liked, but it, too, cost $200M and only made $142M in the middle of Covid.

    The trailer for Strange World looked decent to me, but it's drawn fire from right-wingers who object to the diversity of the cast (which doesn't bother me at all). I think the bigger problem is that maybe the film isn't different enough from a dozen other "mysterious adventures"-type films of the past.

     
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  22. Vidiot

    Vidiot Now in 4K HDR! Thread Starter

    Location:
    Hollywood, USA
    Not all kinds of 3D will work on all kinds of projectors. I asked one of the head TV marketing execs for Sony U.S. why they had dropped 3D, and he kind of shrugged and said, "our research indicated that the market just didn't care about it, and we felt people would rather spend money on 4K and HDR."

    I've often said that the trouble of 3D viewing -- the fact that you have to anchor your head in position, you can't turn your head, and you have to sit directly in front of the screen and not off to the side -- is a major negative factor. People can enjoy 4K Dolby Vision while lying on their sides, getting up and checking their phone for text messages, sitting on a chair sideways against the wall, or watching from the kitchen as they make a sandwich. You can't do that with 3D, which requires active participation from the viewer to follow the rules. My take is average people have problems with rules.

    Avatar 2 is the first film ever widely released in 4K Dolby Vision 3D -- there isn't even an official DCI standard for 4K 3D of any kind -- so I have no doubt it'll look spectacular in theaters. But again, a theater automatically forces the audience in a seat where they can't turn their heads, so it's an ideal environment for Polarized or active-shutter 3D (or the Dolby dichroic glasses).
     
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  23. SandAndGlass

    SandAndGlass Twilight Forum Resident

    I believe I indicated that.

    Most, meaning the better ones.

    There is a definite market for 3D in the theaters, which means that there is also a home 3D market.

    Not at all arguing that 4K and HDR are important to consumers. Though I don’t buy their ""our research indicated that the market just didn't care about it" BS. They just got together and dumped the feature.

    As I said, the consumers had no say in the matter. You can't purchase a feature that is not available.

    Again, I go back to my belief that 3D is not going to save a movie, that would have otherwise failed on its own merits, like The Nutcracker.

    For a period of time, everyone was jumping on the 3D bandwagon. That ended up in a plethora of bad 3D movies that didn't interest anyone.

    People want to see both good 3D and good 3D movies.

    3D as a feature is still alive and kicking in the projection TV world. I predict it will continue to thrive there.

    Sure, 3D is inconvenient. I wouldn't want to watch 3D movies all the time, for the reasons you have stated. But people have a choice. They can watch either the 3D or the 2D version.

    I would buy 3D home media. But there is no point, because I have nothing to watch it on.
     
  24. gabacabriel

    gabacabriel Forum Resident

    Location:
    Bristol, UK
    The problem, at least for me, with Disney films is that they all end up on Disney+ sooner or later, and more often than not it's sooner (or feels like it)

    So why bother with the cinema?

    And as for Strange World specifically .... meh.
     
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  25. alexpop

    alexpop Power pop + other bad habits....

    Glass Onion?
    Don’t suppose big bucks are in order, regarding box office returns.
    Saying that ..disappointed in this Agatha Christie homage.
     

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