Predicting the Movie Hits & Bombs of 2022

And speaking of movie bombs: I'd say nobody should expect to see a sequel to Black Adam anytime soon...

'Black Adam' to Lose Millions at Box Office - Variety

One pertinent paragraph:

“Black Adam,” a comic book adventure starring Dwayne Johnson as a villain who once promised to change the “hierarchy of power” in the Warner Bros. DC universe, didn’t come cheap, costing $195 million to produce. ...As a result, the film needed to earn around $600 million worldwide to break even and to surpass that lofty benchmark to turn a profit, according to sources familiar with the financials. Yet box office experts believe “Black Adam” will stall out with less than $400 million globally, which is problematic since movie theater owners get to keep around half of those sales. Now, the movie stands to lose $50 million to $100 million in its theatrical run, according to the estimates of insiders as well as rival executives with knowledge of similar productions.

In fairness to WB, other sources say the movie will break even at $400M, but I think that's wishful thinking. If it cost $180M +$80M for marketing (which was greatly reduced because of Covid), it would have to make well over $500M+ to really do OK, and then $600M=$800M to be profitable. By contrast, Marvel's Wakanda: Forever cost a whopping $250M, but has made over $733M, which has got to drive Warner Bros. absolutely crazy. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wakanda go well over $800M, though it's clear to me it won't be anywhere near the $1.382 billion that the original Black Panther made.

The article goes on to say:

And it’s not just “Black Adam” that’s struggled greatly to earn back its budget in pandemic times. Disney’s “Strange World” and Pixar’s “Lightyear,” director David O. Russell’s star-studded period piece “Amsterdam” and Lionsgate’s disaster thriller “Moonfall” were other big-budget properties that failed to turn a profit in theaters.

I would bet we can soon add Spielberg's The Fabelmans to the list, even though it was a very mid-priced ($40 million) studio picture with an "indie" feel. But it's only made maybe $7 million so far, which is an outright disaster. Even with minimal marketing, I bet it would have to gross $100M to break even. You can make the argument that after more than 50 years in the business, Spielberg has earned the right to make a personal film that tanks, but it's gonna be a lot harder for him to get non-franchise/blockbuster films to be made now. That's unless he does what Francis Coppola is doing right now, spending $120 million of his own money to make his long-in-progress dream project, Megalopolis.

 

Babylon couldn't look less like the 1920s if it tried.

 

Haven't watched the official trailer(s). But an ad came up on YouTube. I agree, based on what they showed in that trailer/ad, it didn't scream 1930's. If we hadn't been discussing it, I wouldn't have even guessed it was from that time period.

 

It screams train wreck to my eyes/ears.

 

And now, others are saying that Black Adam won't lose money, but may actually make a little money...

Dwayne Johnson ‘Black Adam’ Movie Stands To Profit: Here’s How – Deadline

I think their math is in the "very optimistic" side of things, but it's not impossible. Still, I think they're disappointed that they couldn't match the $600M+ gross of the Ant-Man films or the $800M gross of the Deadpool films. All of these are kind of second- or third-tier superhero films, based on characters not widely known by the public. Superman, people know; Spiderman, people know. The rest... maybe not so much. (And don't forget that Guardians of the Galaxy cost over $200M but made over $770 million dollars, and that was a real stretch for Marvel.)

I think Disney continues to be mystified and baffled by the number of "big swings" that Marvel takes, and then winds up hitting it out of the park. By comparison, Justice League cost $300M and only made $650M, which is not good Hollywood math. Batman vs. Superman did better: it cost $300M and made $873M, and I think that's successful no matter what (assuming a 2.5x multiplier for blockbusters).

Not smelling good for Babylon from my neighborhood in West LA.

 

Black Adam as it stands right now.

Domestic box office: $165,315,868 x 50% studios cut = $82,657,934
International: $219,500,000 x 45% studios cut = $98,775,000
Total Box Office Revenue: $181,432,934

Less: Production costs: $195,000,000
Less: Marketing P&A: $100,000,000

Profit/(Loss) before release to home market: -$113,567,066

That's a fair chunk of $ left to recover out of the home market, the Deadline article includes an $86 million inter-company charge/fee to HBO Max. How WB came up with that amount, who knows and it doesn't really matter since they own HBO. I would not include that amount as revenue if one wants to measure the real profitability of the movie as no extra dollars are coming in from outside the Warner/Discovery entity.

Other "genuine" revenues from the Deadline article = $120 million to be earned over several years
Less: Participation/Residuals/Global Home Ent. Costs = $43 million

Loss: -$36.5 million

Revenue from merchandising: $$ ??

that's my beancounter take on this one.

 

‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Named Best Picture by National Board of Review
Other big winners include Steven Spielberg, Michelle Yeoh and 'Marcel the Shell With Shoes On'

National Board of Review Winners: Top Gun Maverick Is Best Picture - Variety

Top Films (in alphabetical order):

• “Aftersun” (A24)
• “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
• “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
• “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
• “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
• “RRR” (Variance Films)
• “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)
• “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
• “Women Talking”

Top 5 International Films (in alphabetical order):

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
• “Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)
• “Decision to Leave” (South Korea)
• “EO” (Poland)
• “Saint Omer” (France)

Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order):

• “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Neon)
• “All That Breathes” (HBO)
• “Descendant” (Netflix)
• “Turn Every Page – The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• “Wildcat” (Amazon Studios)

Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order):

• “Armageddon Time” (Focus Features)
• “Emily the Criminal” (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment)
• “The Eternal Daughter” (A24)
• “Funny Pages” (A24)
• “The Inspection” (A24)
• “Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• “A Love Song” (Bleecker Street)
• “Nanny” (Amazon Studios)
• “The Wonder” (Netflix)
• “To Leslie” (Momentum Pictures)

 

It may be worse than that if The Rock's contract included a percentage of the gross, which you think these big actors would get. The production cost probably just includes his basic fee.

 

Yeah, I think WB is just trying to spin the movie in a positive direction. I think the reality is that they made the exact movie that Dwayne Johnson wanted to make, and it didn't attract a big-enough audience. I think they truly hoped to make $800M-$900M, and it just didn't happen. For me, it was not a good movie... there were a lot of weird, disconnected, odd moments that made no sense. Black Adam is a strange film.

As far as I know, they've never revealed how many people are on "The National Board of Review" and who they are. They strike me as something like the Golden Globes, The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which is really just 100 foreign reporters working in LA. Are these guys really the arbiters of taste for current film releases?

 

I don't quite understand the need to come out publicly and claim that Black Adam could be profitable despite the evidence, the entire DC universe is going to be re-booted from scratch anyways if recent reports are accurate (Wonder Woman 3 cancelled, Jason Momoa booted from future Aquaman roles, Superman re-booted etc).

The National Board of Review website, head office is located in NYC. Founded in 1909. There's a list of board members on the right.

About The National Board of Review - National Board of Review

 

AFI Top 10 Awards

AFI Top 10 Awards: Avatar 2, Nope, She Said, The White Lotus - Variety

AFI Movies of the Year

• “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
• “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
• “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
• “Nope” (Universal Pictures)
• “She Said” (Universal Pictures)
• “Tár” (Focus Features)
• “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
• “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
• “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

AFI Television Programs of the Year

• “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
• “The Bear” (FX)
• “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
• “Hacks” (HBO Max)
• “Mo” (Netflix)
• “Pachinko” (Apple TV+)
• “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
• “Severance” (Apple TV+)
• “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)
• “The White Lotus” (HBO)

AFI Special Award

• “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin” was given an AFI Special Award, as internationally produced films don’t typically qualify for the top 10 listings. Other past special honorees in this way include “Belfast” (2021), “Parasite” (2019) and “Roma” (2018).

 

I think they're trying to placate Dwayne Johnson, who is unhappy at the amount of bad press the movie's lack of success has received. Note that Jungle Cruise from last year also bombed last year (cost $200M, made $220M), so I bet Mr. Johnson and his management are a bit concerned. I can recall years ago after he made Tooth Fairy, which was a tremendous bomb, he fired his managers and agents and lawyers and just started over, because he had kind of been talked into doing this "kinder, gentler family film," but it sank without a trace.

I still say the National Board of Review is a blip in terms of non-importance to the other major awards shows. I think it's a publicity mill and not a real organization.

 

Jason Momoa got the boot? I knew Amber Heard was history but....

 

I didn’t know that either? I thought that Jason Moma made an Excellent Aqua Man.

 

That's one of the rumours going around right now (from the Hollywood Reporter story), James Gunn will clarify everything in the next few weeks when the plan for the DC universe is unveiled.


James Gunn Twitter account
https://twitter.com/JamesGunn?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

You know, I got some serious The Boys vibes from that weird photo...

 

Maybe not the boot but Gunn is keen to make a Lobo film and Momoa is the preferred choice, so they may 'retire' Aquaman so that he's not playing two people.

As for Wonder Woman I heard the script was awful (as it was for the last film) and they told Jenkins it would need to be rewritten by someone else and she stormed out saying it was her script or nothing.

Superman is in the Flash film in several scenes, who knows if that will ever get released given Miller's behaviour. If they dropped Cavill as he is too associated with the Snyderverse then they would need to do reshoots to remove him.

It's all a big mess really. They probably need to start from scratch. The Flash film would have been the perfect way to reset the whole thing, as they could just say the Snyderverse was an alternative earth. There are three Batman's in it. But then can they release a film with Ezra Miller in? Could they remove him from the whole film?

 

And it looks like I wasn't far off when I said WB was trying to put a positive spin on the poor box office performance of Black Adam...

The Rock's Black Adam Box Office Damage Control Is Embarrassing

 

They should get Martin Scorsese to helm a few of these. Or, actually, one of the best superhero movies imo, was the first Hulk. Yeah, SFX weren't great, but the comic book panel approach to the actions scenes was very effective. And he's a director who has more empathy with actors than computers formulating CG. These movies are generally machines with no heart.

 

Basically this, under the guise of fiscal rationalizations:

 

DC ‘Wonder Woman 3’ Shakeup: What’s next for sequels like ‘Man of Steel’ – Deadline really strong article

 

Dwayne Johnson ‘Black Adam’ Movie Stands To Profit: Here’s How – Deadline pretty good read

 

James Gunn Says “Superman Is A Huge Priority” & Reveals Where He Stands With Henry Cavill – Deadline

 

Weekend Box Office At $37M, Near 2022 Low Before ‘Avatar’ Sequel Arrives – Deadline

 

I won't mourn Patty Jenkins being out. She probably got too much credit for WW, where she had many co-writers. WW84 was all her, and it stunk. I hope they can keep Gal Gadot in the role, though and get a few more movies out of her.